Lahnik O., Tramblay Yves, Hanich L., Andersson J. C. M., Lguensat Redouane, Isberg K., Ben Ahmed A., Dahn J., Sultan Benjamin. (2025). Future water resources and droughts in the Atlas Mountains of Morocco under a high-emission climate scenario. Journal of Hydrology : Regional Studies, 59, p. 102371 [22 p.].
Titre du document
Future water resources and droughts in the Atlas Mountains of Morocco under a high-emission climate scenario
Lahnik O., Tramblay Yves, Hanich L., Andersson J. C. M., Lguensat Redouane, Isberg K., Ben Ahmed A., Dahn J., Sultan Benjamin
Source
Journal of Hydrology : Regional Studies, 2025,
59, p. 102371 [22 p.]
Study Region: Morocco, North Africa. This study examines 36 mountainous basins that supply most of the country's surface water. Study Focus: This study aims to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on discharge in Morocco. Two hydrological models, World Wide HYPE and GR4J-CemaNeige, were used in combination with outputs from nine bias-corrected regional climate models. Future discharge was projected under the high-emission RCP8.5 scenario for the mid-century (2040-2060) and late-century (2070-2100). By implementing a state-of-the-art modeling approach on numerous representative sites, the study provides a robust framework for assessing changes in hydrological processes and water availability. New Hydrological Insights for the Region: This research identifies critical changes in snow dynamics, with peak snow storage projected to decrease by over 50 % due to rising temperatures. Consequently, the contribution of snowmelt to discharge will significantly diminish. These snow-related shifts are heading to an average reduction in discharge of-55 % by the late century (2070-2100). This reduction is primarily driven by significant decreases in precipitation (up to-43 %) combined with substantial increases in potential evapotranspiration (up to +38 %). Additionally, hydrological droughts are expected to become more frequent and prolonged, underscoring the urgent need for adaptive water management strategies specifically designed to address basin-specific characteristics.
Plan de classement
Sciences fondamentales / Techniques d'analyse et de recherche [020]
;
Sciences du milieu [021]
;
Hydrologie [062]
