%0 Journal Article
%9 ACL : Articles dans des revues avec comité de lecture répertoriées par l'AERES
%A Lahnik, O.
%A Tramblay, Yves
%A Hanich, L.
%A Andersson, J. C. M.
%A Lguensat, Redouane
%A Isberg, K.
%A Ben Ahmed, A.
%A Dahn, J.
%A Sultan, Benjamin
%T Future water resources and droughts in the Atlas Mountains of Morocco under a high-emission climate scenario
%D 2025
%L fdi:010093424
%G ENG
%J Journal of Hydrology : Regional Studies
%K Climate change impacts ; Hydrological modeling ; Mountainous region ; Drought analysis ; Streamflow projection
%K MAROC
%M ISI:001466072300001
%P 102371 [22 ]
%R 10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102371
%U https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010093424
%> https://horizon.documentation.ird.fr/exl-doc/pleins_textes/2025-05/010093424.pdf
%V 59
%W Horizon (IRD)
%X Study Region: Morocco, North Africa. This study examines 36 mountainous basins that supply most of the country's surface water. Study Focus: This study aims to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on discharge in Morocco. Two hydrological models, World Wide HYPE and GR4J-CemaNeige, were used in combination with outputs from nine bias-corrected regional climate models. Future discharge was projected under the high-emission RCP8.5 scenario for the mid-century (2040-2060) and late-century (2070-2100). By implementing a state-of-the-art modeling approach on numerous representative sites, the study provides a robust framework for assessing changes in hydrological processes and water availability. New Hydrological Insights for the Region: This research identifies critical changes in snow dynamics, with peak snow storage projected to decrease by over 50 % due to rising temperatures. Consequently, the contribution of snowmelt to discharge will significantly diminish. These snow-related shifts are heading to an average reduction in discharge of-55 % by the late century (2070-2100). This reduction is primarily driven by significant decreases in precipitation (up to-43 %) combined with substantial increases in potential evapotranspiration (up to +38 %). Additionally, hydrological droughts are expected to become more frequent and prolonged, underscoring the urgent need for adaptive water management strategies specifically designed to address basin-specific characteristics.
%$ 062 ; 021 ; 020