Publications des scientifiques de l'IRD

Smith D. M., Gillett N. P., Simpson I. R., Athanasiadis P. J., Baehr J., Bethke I., Bilge T. A., Bonnet R., Boucher O., Findell K. L., Gastineau G., Gualdi S., Hermanson L., Leung L. R., Mignot Juliette, Muller W. A., Osprey S., Otters O. H., Persad G. G., Scaife A. A., Schmidt G. A., Shiogama H., Sutton R. T., Swingedouw D., Yang S. T., Zhou T. J., Ziehn T. (2022). Attribution of multi-annual to decadal changes in the climate system : the Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (LESFMIP). Frontiers in Climate, 4, p. 955414 [14 p.].

Titre du document
Attribution of multi-annual to decadal changes in the climate system : the Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (LESFMIP)
Année de publication
2022
Type de document
Article référencé dans le Web of Science WOS:001019276100001
Auteurs
Smith D. M., Gillett N. P., Simpson I. R., Athanasiadis P. J., Baehr J., Bethke I., Bilge T. A., Bonnet R., Boucher O., Findell K. L., Gastineau G., Gualdi S., Hermanson L., Leung L. R., Mignot Juliette, Muller W. A., Osprey S., Otters O. H., Persad G. G., Scaife A. A., Schmidt G. A., Shiogama H., Sutton R. T., Swingedouw D., Yang S. T., Zhou T. J., Ziehn T.
Source
Frontiers in Climate, 2022, 4, p. 955414 [14 p.]
Multi-annual to decadal changes in climate are accompanied by changes in extreme events that cause major impacts on society and severe challenges for adaptation. Early warnings of such changes are now potentially possible through operational decadal predictions. However, improved understanding of the causes of regional changes in climate on these timescales is needed both to attribute recent events and to gain further confidence in forecasts. Here we document the Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project that will address this need through coordinated model experiments enabling the impacts of different external drivers to be isolated. We highlight the need to account for model errors and propose an attribution approach that exploits differences between models to diagnose the real-world situation and overcomes potential errors in atmospheric circulation changes. The experiments and analysis proposed here will provide substantial improvements to our ability to understand near-term changes in climate and will support the World Climate Research Program Lighthouse Activity on Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change.
Plan de classement
Sciences fondamentales / Techniques d'analyse et de recherche [020] ; Sciences du milieu [021]
Localisation
Fonds IRD [F B010088277]
Identifiant IRD
fdi:010088277
Contact