Smith D. M. auteur aut IRD Gillett N. P. auteur aut IRD Simpson I. R. auteur aut IRD Athanasiadis P. J. auteur aut IRD Baehr J. auteur aut IRD Bethke I. auteur aut IRD Bilge T. A. auteur aut IRD Bonnet R. auteur aut IRD Boucher O. auteur aut IRD Findell K. L. auteur aut IRD Gastineau G. auteur aut IRD Gualdi S. auteur aut IRD Hermanson L. auteur aut IRD Leung L. R. auteur aut IRD Mignot Juliette auteur aut IRD Muller W. A. auteur aut IRD Osprey S. auteur aut IRD Otters O. H. auteur aut IRD Persad G. G. auteur aut IRD Scaife A. A. auteur aut IRD Schmidt G. A. auteur aut IRD Shiogama H. auteur aut IRD Sutton R. T. auteur aut IRD Swingedouw D. auteur aut IRD Yang S. T. auteur aut IRD Zhou T. J. auteur aut IRD Ziehn T. auteur aut IRD text journalArticle eng text/pdf reformatted digital access Multi-annual to decadal changes in climate are accompanied by changes in extreme events that cause major impacts on society and severe challenges for adaptation. Early warnings of such changes are now potentially possible through operational decadal predictions. However, improved understanding of the causes of regional changes in climate on these timescales is needed both to attribute recent events and to gain further confidence in forecasts. Here we document the Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project that will address this need through coordinated model experiments enabling the impacts of different external drivers to be isolated. We highlight the need to account for model errors and propose an attribution approach that exploits differences between models to diagnose the real-world situation and overcomes potential errors in atmospheric circulation changes. The experiments and analysis proposed here will provide substantial improvements to our ability to understand near-term changes in climate and will support the World Climate Research Program Lighthouse Activity on Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change. specialized decadal climate attribution external forcings large ensembles model intercomparison Lighthouse Activity 021 020 4 955414 [14 ] 2022 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010088277 10.3389/fclim.2022.955414 [F B010088277] https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010088277 https://horizon.documentation.ird.fr/exl-doc/pleins_textes/2023-08/010088277.pdf IRD - Base Horizon / Pleins textes 2023-08-25 2025-02-24 fdi:010088277 fre