@article{fdi:010088277,
  title = {{A}ttribution of multi-annual to decadal changes in the climate system : the {L}arge {E}nsemble {S}ingle {F}orcing {M}odel {I}ntercomparison {P}roject ({LESFMIP})},
  author = {{S}mith, {D}. {M}. and {G}illett, {N}. {P}. and {S}impson, {I}. {R}. and {A}thanasiadis, {P}. {J}. and {B}aehr, {J}. and {B}ethke, {I}. and {B}ilge, {T}. {A}. and {B}onnet, {R}. and {B}oucher, {O}. and {F}indell, {K}. {L}. and {G}astineau, {G}. and {G}ualdi, {S}. and {H}ermanson, {L}. and {L}eung, {L}. {R}. and {M}ignot, {J}uliette and {M}uller, {W}. {A}. and {O}sprey, {S}. and {O}tters, {O}. {H}. and {P}ersad, {G}. {G}. and {S}caife, {A}. {A}. and {S}chmidt, {G}. {A}. and {S}hiogama, {H}. and {S}utton, {R}. {T}. and {S}wingedouw, {D}. and {Y}ang, {S}. {T}. and {Z}hou, {T}. {J}. and {Z}iehn, {T}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{M}ulti-annual to decadal changes in climate are accompanied by changes in extreme events that cause major impacts on society and severe challenges for adaptation. {E}arly warnings of such changes are now potentially possible through operational decadal predictions. {H}owever, improved understanding of the causes of regional changes in climate on these timescales is needed both to attribute recent events and to gain further confidence in forecasts. {H}ere we document the {L}arge {E}nsemble {S}ingle {F}orcing {M}odel {I}ntercomparison {P}roject that will address this need through coordinated model experiments enabling the impacts of different external drivers to be isolated. {W}e highlight the need to account for model errors and propose an attribution approach that exploits differences between models to diagnose the real-world situation and overcomes potential errors in atmospheric circulation changes. {T}he experiments and analysis proposed here will provide substantial improvements to our ability to understand near-term changes in climate and will support the {W}orld {C}limate {R}esearch {P}rogram {L}ighthouse {A}ctivity on {E}xplaining and {P}redicting {E}arth {S}ystem {C}hange.},
  keywords = {decadal climate ; attribution ; external forcings ; large ensembles ; model ; intercomparison ; {L}ighthouse {A}ctivity},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{F}rontiers in {C}limate},
  volume = {4},
  numero = {},
  pages = {955414 [14 p.]},
  year = {2022},
  DOI = {10.3389/fclim.2022.955414},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010088277},
}