Ilyina T., Li H., Spring A., Muller W. A., Bopp L., Chikamoto M. O., Danabasoglu G., Dobrynin M., Dunne J., Fransner F., Friedlingstein P., Lee W., Lovenduski N. S., Merryfield W. J., Mignot Juliette, Park J. Y., Seferian R., Sospedra-Alfonso R., Watanabe M., Yeager S. (2021). Predictable variations of the carbon sinks and atmospheric CO2 growth in a multi-model framework. Geophysical Research Letters, 48 (6), p. e2020GL090695 [12 p.]. ISSN 0094-8276.
Titre du document
Predictable variations of the carbon sinks and atmospheric CO2 growth in a multi-model framework
Année de publication
2021
Auteurs
Ilyina T., Li H., Spring A., Muller W. A., Bopp L., Chikamoto M. O., Danabasoglu G., Dobrynin M., Dunne J., Fransner F., Friedlingstein P., Lee W., Lovenduski N. S., Merryfield W. J., Mignot Juliette, Park J. Y., Seferian R., Sospedra-Alfonso R., Watanabe M., Yeager S.
Source
Geophysical Research Letters, 2021,
48 (6), p. e2020GL090695 [12 p.] ISSN 0094-8276
Inter-annual to decadal variability in the strength of the land and ocean carbon sinks impede accurate predictions of year-to-year atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) growth rate. Such information is crucial to verify the effectiveness of fossil fuel emissions reduction measures. Using a multi-model framework comprising prediction systems initialized by the observed state of the physical climate, we find a predictive skill for the global ocean carbon sink of up to 6 years for some models. Longer regional predictability horizons are found across single models. On land, a predictive skill of up to 2 years is primarily maintained in the tropics and extra-tropics enabled by the initialization of the physical climate. We further show that anomalies of atmospheric CO2 growth rate inferred from natural variations of the land and ocean carbon sinks are predictable at lead time of 2 years and the skill is limited by the land carbon sink predictability horizon.
Plan de classement
Sciences fondamentales / Techniques d'analyse et de recherche [020]
;
Sciences du milieu [021]
;
Limnologie physique / Océanographie physique [032]
;
Géologie et formations superficielles [064]
Localisation
Fonds IRD [F B010081310]
Identifiant IRD
fdi:010081310
