Ilyina T. auteur aut IRD Li H. auteur aut IRD Spring A. auteur aut IRD Muller W. A. auteur aut IRD Bopp L. auteur aut IRD Chikamoto M. O. auteur aut IRD Danabasoglu G. auteur aut IRD Dobrynin M. auteur aut IRD Dunne J. auteur aut IRD Fransner F. auteur aut IRD Friedlingstein P. auteur aut IRD Lee W. auteur aut IRD Lovenduski N. S. auteur aut IRD Merryfield W. J. auteur aut IRD Mignot Juliette auteur aut IRD Park J. Y. auteur aut IRD Seferian R. auteur aut IRD Sospedra-Alfonso R. auteur aut IRD Watanabe M. auteur aut IRD Yeager S. auteur aut IRD text journalArticle eng text/pdf reformatted digital access Inter-annual to decadal variability in the strength of the land and ocean carbon sinks impede accurate predictions of year-to-year atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) growth rate. Such information is crucial to verify the effectiveness of fossil fuel emissions reduction measures. Using a multi-model framework comprising prediction systems initialized by the observed state of the physical climate, we find a predictive skill for the global ocean carbon sink of up to 6 years for some models. Longer regional predictability horizons are found across single models. On land, a predictive skill of up to 2 years is primarily maintained in the tropics and extra-tropics enabled by the initialization of the physical climate. We further show that anomalies of atmospheric CO2 growth rate inferred from natural variations of the land and ocean carbon sinks are predictable at lead time of 2 years and the skill is limited by the land carbon sink predictability horizon. specialized atmospheric CO2 carbon sinks predictions 021 064 032 020 48 6 e2020GL090695 [12 p.] 2021 0094-8276 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010081310 10.1029/2020gl090695 0094-8276 [F B010081310] https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010081310 https://horizon.documentation.ird.fr/exl-doc/pleins_textes/2021-05/010081310.pdf IRD - Base Horizon / Pleins textes 2021-05-17 2025-02-24 fdi:010081310 fre