@article{fdi:010081310,
  title = {{P}redictable variations of the carbon sinks and atmospheric {CO}2 growth in a multi-model framework},
  author = {{I}lyina, {T}. and {L}i, {H}. and {S}pring, {A}. and {M}uller, {W}. {A}. and {B}opp, {L}. and {C}hikamoto, {M}. {O}. and {D}anabasoglu, {G}. and {D}obrynin, {M}. and {D}unne, {J}. and {F}ransner, {F}. and {F}riedlingstein, {P}. and {L}ee, {W}. and {L}ovenduski, {N}. {S}. and {M}erryfield, {W}. {J}. and {M}ignot, {J}uliette and {P}ark, {J}. {Y}. and {S}eferian, {R}. and {S}ospedra-{A}lfonso, {R}. and {W}atanabe, {M}. and {Y}eager, {S}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{I}nter-annual to decadal variability in the strength of the land and ocean carbon sinks impede accurate predictions of year-to-year atmospheric carbon dioxide ({CO}2) growth rate. {S}uch information is crucial to verify the effectiveness of fossil fuel emissions reduction measures. {U}sing a multi-model framework comprising prediction systems initialized by the observed state of the physical climate, we find a predictive skill for the global ocean carbon sink of up to 6 years for some models. {L}onger regional predictability horizons are found across single models. {O}n land, a predictive skill of up to 2 years is primarily maintained in the tropics and extra-tropics enabled by the initialization of the physical climate. {W}e further show that anomalies of atmospheric {CO}2 growth rate inferred from natural variations of the land and ocean carbon sinks are predictable at lead time of 2 years and the skill is limited by the land carbon sink predictability horizon.},
  keywords = {atmospheric {CO}2 ; carbon sinks ; predictions},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{G}eophysical {R}esearch {L}etters},
  volume = {48},
  numero = {6},
  pages = {e2020{GL}090695 [12 p.]},
  ISSN = {0094-8276},
  year = {2021},
  DOI = {10.1029/2020gl090695},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010081310},
}