Bocquier Philippe. (2005). World Urbanization Prospects : an alternative to the UN model of projection compatible with the mobility transition theory. Demographic Research, 12 (9), p. 197-236. ISSN 1435-9871.
Titre du document
World Urbanization Prospects : an alternative to the UN model of projection compatible with the mobility transition theory
Demographic Research, 2005,
12 (9), p. 197-236 ISSN 1435-9871
This paper proposes to critically examine the United Nations projections on urbanisation. Both the estimates of current trends based on national data and the method of projection are evaluated. The theory of mobility transition is used as an alternative hypothesis. Projections are proposed using a polynomial model and compared to the UN projections, which are based on a linear model. The conclusion is that UN projections may overestimate the urban population for the year 2030 by almost one billion, or 19% in relative term. The overestimation would be particularly more pronounced for developing countries and may exceed 30% in Africa, India and Oceania.
Plan de classement
Urbanisation et sociétés urbaines [102]
;
Démographie [108]
