World Urbanization Prospects : an alternative to the UN model of projection compatible with the mobility transition theory Bocquier Philippe auteur aut IRD text journalArticle eng text/pdf born digital access This paper proposes to critically examine the United Nations projections on urbanisation. Both the estimates of current trends based on national data and the method of projection are evaluated. The theory of mobility transition is used as an alternative hypothesis. Projections are proposed using a polynomial model and compared to the UN projections, which are based on a linear model. The conclusion is that UN projections may overestimate the urban population for the year 2030 by almost one billion, or 19% in relative term. The overestimation would be particularly more pronounced for developing countries and may exceed 30% in Africa, India and Oceania. specialized 108 102 Demographic Research 12 9 197-236 2005 1435-9871 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010035613 10.4054/DemRes.2005.12.9 1435-9871 [F B010035613] https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010035613 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/intranet/publi/2006/05/010035613.pdf Accès réservé (Intranet de l'IRD) IRD - Base Horizon / Pleins textes 2006-05-30 2017-08-23 fdi:010035613 fre