@article{fdi:010035613,
  title = {{W}orld {U}rbanization {P}rospects : an alternative to the {UN} model of projection compatible with the mobility transition theory},
  author = {{B}ocquier, {P}hilippe},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}his paper proposes to critically examine the {U}nited {N}ations projections on urbanisation. {B}oth the estimates of current trends based on national data and the method of projection are evaluated. {T}he theory of mobility transition is used as an alternative hypothesis. {P}rojections are proposed using a polynomial model and compared to the {UN} projections, which are based on a linear model. {T}he conclusion is that {UN} projections may overestimate the urban population for the year 2030 by almost one billion, or 19% in relative term. {T}he overestimation would be particularly more pronounced for developing countries and may exceed 30% in {A}frica, {I}ndia and {O}ceania.},
  keywords = {},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{D}emographic {R}esearch},
  volume = {12},
  numero = {9},
  pages = {197--236},
  ISSN = {1435-9871},
  year = {2005},
  DOI = {10.4054/{D}em{R}es.2005.12.9},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010035613},
}