Peings Y., Douville H., Terray Pascal. (2009). Extended winter Pacific North America oscillation as a precursor of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L11710. ISSN 0094-8276.
Titre du document
Extended winter Pacific North America oscillation as a precursor of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall
Geophysical Research Letters, 2009,
36, L11710 ISSN 0094-8276
In spite of considerable efforts, long-range forecasting of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is still a challenge for both statistical and dynamical tools. We highlight the winter-to-spring Pacific North America (PNA) oscillation as a predictor for the ISMR. A PNA-related index is proposed that is highly correlated with the following summer precipitation over India and is also a precursor of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events over recent decades. The PNA index compares well with other predictors used in operational statistical models for ISMR prediction. A multiple linear regression scheme is tested with a cross-validation hindcast approach and confirms the added value of our predictor, at least over the period 1958-2005. Nevertheless, the predictor shows less skill over the first half of the 20th century. Possible physical mechanisms of this teleconnection are also briefly discussed and could involve both a tropical Pacific sea surface temperature and Eurasian snow cover pathway. Citation: Peings, Y., H. Douville, and P. Terray (2009), Extended winter Pacific North America oscillation as a precursor of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L11710, doi:10.1029/2009GL038453.
Plan de classement
Sciences du milieu [021]
;
Limnologie physique / Océanographie physique [032]
