%0 Journal Article
%9 ACL : Articles dans des revues avec comité de lecture répertoriées par l'AERES
%A Peings, Y.
%A Douville, H.
%A Terray, Pascal
%T Extended winter Pacific North America oscillation as a precursor of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall
%D 2009
%L PAR00003585
%G ENG
%J Geophysical Research Letters
%@ 0094-8276
%M ISI:000267000700006
%P L11710
%R 10.1029/2009gl038453
%U https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/PAR00003585
%V 36
%W Horizon (IRD)
%X In spite of considerable efforts, long-range forecasting of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is still a challenge for both statistical and dynamical tools. We highlight the winter-to-spring Pacific North America (PNA) oscillation as a predictor for the ISMR. A PNA-related index is proposed that is highly correlated with the following summer precipitation over India and is also a precursor of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events over recent decades. The PNA index compares well with other predictors used in operational statistical models for ISMR prediction. A multiple linear regression scheme is tested with a cross-validation hindcast approach and confirms the added value of our predictor, at least over the period 1958-2005. Nevertheless, the predictor shows less skill over the first half of the 20th century. Possible physical mechanisms of this teleconnection are also briefly discussed and could involve both a tropical Pacific sea surface temperature and Eurasian snow cover pathway. Citation: Peings, Y., H. Douville, and P. Terray (2009), Extended winter Pacific North America oscillation as a precursor of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L11710, doi:10.1029/2009GL038453.
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