@article{PAR00003585,
  title = {{E}xtended winter {P}acific {N}orth {A}merica oscillation as a precursor of the {I}ndian summer monsoon rainfall},
  author = {{P}eings, {Y}. and {D}ouville, {H}. and {T}erray, {P}ascal},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{I}n spite of considerable efforts, long-range forecasting of {I}ndian summer monsoon rainfall ({ISMR}) is still a challenge for both statistical and dynamical tools. {W}e highlight the winter-to-spring {P}acific {N}orth {A}merica ({PNA}) oscillation as a predictor for the {ISMR}. {A} {PNA}-related index is proposed that is highly correlated with the following summer precipitation over {I}ndia and is also a precursor of {E}l {N}ino-{S}outhern {O}scillation ({ENSO}) events over recent decades. {T}he {PNA} index compares well with other predictors used in operational statistical models for {ISMR} prediction. {A} multiple linear regression scheme is tested with a cross-validation hindcast approach and confirms the added value of our predictor, at least over the period 1958-2005. {N}evertheless, the predictor shows less skill over the first half of the 20th century. {P}ossible physical mechanisms of this teleconnection are also briefly discussed and could involve both a tropical {P}acific sea surface temperature and {E}urasian snow cover pathway. {C}itation: {P}eings, {Y}., {H}. {D}ouville, and {P}. {T}erray (2009), {E}xtended winter {P}acific {N}orth {A}merica oscillation as a precursor of the {I}ndian summer monsoon rainfall, {G}eophys. {R}es. {L}ett., 36, {L}11710, doi:10.1029/2009{GL}038453.},
  keywords = {},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{G}eophysical {R}esearch {L}etters},
  volume = {36},
  numero = {},
  pages = {{L}11710},
  ISSN = {0094-8276},
  year = {2009},
  DOI = {10.1029/2009gl038453},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/{PAR}00003585},
}