Jourdain Frédéric, de Valk H., Noel H., Paty M. C., L'Ambert G., Franke F., Mouly D., Desenclos J. C., Roche Benjamin. (2022). Estimating chikungunya virus transmission parameters and vector control effectiveness highlights key factors to mitigate arboviral disease outbreaks. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 16 (3), p. e0010244 [18 p.]. ISSN 1935-2735.
Titre du document
Estimating chikungunya virus transmission parameters and vector control effectiveness highlights key factors to mitigate arboviral disease outbreaks
Année de publication
2022
Auteurs
Jourdain Frédéric, de Valk H., Noel H., Paty M. C., L'Ambert G., Franke F., Mouly D., Desenclos J. C., Roche Benjamin
Source
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 2022,
16 (3), p. e0010244 [18 p.] ISSN 1935-2735
BackgroundViruses transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes have greatly expanded their geographic range in recent decades. They are considered emerging public health threats throughout the world, including Europe. Therefore, public health authorities must be prepared by quantifying the potential magnitude of virus transmission and the effectiveness of interventions. MethodologyWe developed a mathematical model with a vector-host structure for chikungunya virus transmission and estimated model parameters from epidemiological data of the two main autochthonous chikungunya virus transmission events that occurred in Southern France, in Montpellier (2014) and in Le Cannet-des-Maures (2017). We then performed simulations of the model using these estimates to forecast the magnitude of the foci of transmission as a function of the response delay and the moment of virus introduction. ConclusionsThe results of the different simulations underline the relative importance of each variable and can be useful to stakeholders when designing context-based intervention strategies. The findings emphasize the importance of, and advocate for early detection of imported cases and timely biological confirmation of autochthonous cases to ensure timely vector control measures, supporting the implementation and the maintenance of sustainable surveillance systems. Author summaryDengue, chikungunya and Zika viruses have expanded their geographic range during recent decades and are now considered emerging threats in temperate areas. In particular, autochthonous transmissions of chikungunya virus (CHIKV) have regularly been observed in Europe since 2010. The increase in international travel and trade appear to be major factors, encouraging both a circulation of these viruses on a global scale and the dispersion of one of their main vectors, Aedes albopictus. This trend is likely to increase significantly in the future and improved preparedness and response strategies are essential to manage these emerging risks. In this respect of decision support, we developed a mathematical model for CHIKV transmission. We first estimated key model parameters of CHIKV transmission and vector control effectiveness, using data from the two main CHIKV transmission events which have already occurred in mainland France. The model was then used to forecast the magnitude of outbreaks as a function of the delay in implementing control measures, and from the moment of virus introduction during the mosquito vector season. This work will help provide stakeholders in public health with a greater understanding of the dynamics of CHIKV transmission, and with evidence for the implementation of sustainable surveillance systems.
Plan de classement
Sciences fondamentales / Techniques d'analyse et de recherche [020]
;
Santé : généralités [050]
;
Entomologie médicale / Parasitologie / Virologie [052]
Description Géographique
FRANCE ; ZONE MEDITERRANEENNE ; HÉRAULT ; VAR ; MONTPELLIER ; CANNET DES MAURES
Localisation
Fonds IRD [F B010084644]
Identifiant IRD
fdi:010084644
