@article{fdi:010084644,
  title = {{E}stimating chikungunya virus transmission parameters and vector control effectiveness highlights key factors to mitigate arboviral disease outbreaks},
  author = {{J}ourdain, {F}r{\'e}d{\'e}ric and de {V}alk, {H}. and {N}oel, {H}. and {P}aty, {M}. {C}. and {L}'{A}mbert, {G}. and {F}ranke, {F}. and {M}ouly, {D}. and {D}esenclos, {J}. {C}. and {R}oche, {B}enjamin},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{B}ackground{V}iruses transmitted by {A}edes mosquitoes have greatly expanded their geographic range in recent decades. {T}hey are considered emerging public health threats throughout the world, including {E}urope. {T}herefore, public health authorities must be prepared by quantifying the potential magnitude of virus transmission and the effectiveness of interventions. {M}ethodology{W}e developed a mathematical model with a vector-host structure for chikungunya virus transmission and estimated model parameters from epidemiological data of the two main autochthonous chikungunya virus transmission events that occurred in {S}outhern {F}rance, in {M}ontpellier (2014) and in {L}e {C}annet-des-{M}aures (2017). {W}e then performed simulations of the model using these estimates to forecast the magnitude of the foci of transmission as a function of the response delay and the moment of virus introduction. {C}onclusions{T}he results of the different simulations underline the relative importance of each variable and can be useful to stakeholders when designing context-based intervention strategies. {T}he findings emphasize the importance of, and advocate for early detection of imported cases and timely biological confirmation of autochthonous cases to ensure timely vector control measures, supporting the implementation and the maintenance of sustainable surveillance systems. {A}uthor summary{D}engue, chikungunya and {Z}ika viruses have expanded their geographic range during recent decades and are now considered emerging threats in temperate areas. {I}n particular, autochthonous transmissions of chikungunya virus ({CHIKV}) have regularly been observed in {E}urope since 2010. {T}he increase in international travel and trade appear to be major factors, encouraging both a circulation of these viruses on a global scale and the dispersion of one of their main vectors, {A}edes albopictus. {T}his trend is likely to increase significantly in the future and improved preparedness and response strategies are essential to manage these emerging risks. {I}n this respect of decision support, we developed a mathematical model for {CHIKV} transmission. {W}e first estimated key model parameters of {CHIKV} transmission and vector control effectiveness, using data from the two main {CHIKV} transmission events which have already occurred in mainland {F}rance. {T}he model was then used to forecast the magnitude of outbreaks as a function of the delay in implementing control measures, and from the moment of virus introduction during the mosquito vector season. {T}his work will help provide stakeholders in public health with a greater understanding of the dynamics of {CHIKV} transmission, and with evidence for the implementation of sustainable surveillance systems.},
  keywords = {{FRANCE} ; {ZONE} {MEDITERRANEENNE} ; {H}É{RAULT} ; {VAR} ; {MONTPELLIER} ; {CANNET} {DES} {MAURES}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{PL}o{S} {N}eglected {T}ropical {D}iseases},
  volume = {16},
  numero = {3},
  pages = {e0010244 [18 p.]},
  ISSN = {1935-2735},
  year = {2022},
  DOI = {10.1371/journal.pntd.0010244},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010084644},
}