Brouziyne Y., Belaqziz S., Benaabidate L., Aboubdillah A., El Bilali A., Elbeltagi A., Tzoraki O., Chehbouni Abdelghani. (2022). Modeling long term response of environmental flow attributes to future climate change in a North African watershed (Bouregreg watershed, Morocco). Ecohydrology and Hydrobiology, 22 (1), p. 155-167. ISSN 1642-3593.
Titre du document
Modeling long term response of environmental flow attributes to future climate change in a North African watershed (Bouregreg watershed, Morocco)
Brouziyne Y., Belaqziz S., Benaabidate L., Aboubdillah A., El Bilali A., Elbeltagi A., Tzoraki O., Chehbouni Abdelghani
Source
Ecohydrology and Hydrobiology, 2022,
22 (1), p. 155-167 ISSN 1642-3593
Environmental flows are unanimously considered to be one of the most comprehensive indicators of the rivers health and their capacities to provide ecosystem goods and services. In this study, the objective was to predict the response of environmental flow components in a typical North African rivers network to future climate change. The study watershed is Bouregreg watershed (BW) in Morocco. To achieve this objective, a hybrid approach was build based on the semi-distributed model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration program (IHA). Data of two emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from a downscaled Global Circulation Model were used to force the hybrid SWAT-IHA to calculate modifications of BW's environmental flow components in 2085-2100 period. Results showed that BW will experience climatic changes under both scenarios. Most of the environmental flow attributes will be modified within the study period: loss of natural flow variability due to shift in exceedance probability of low flows (up to 40%), decrease of monthly low flows, forward shift in high flow timing (up to 50%), and alteration of both the duration and the rise rates of floods. BW's streams responded unequally to the simulated changes in terms of the altered attributes as well as the degree of the alteration. This study confirmed the ability of the developed modeling approach to monitor environmental flow parameters for the first time in Morocco, and contributed in highlighting the necessity of proactive long term strategies to protect riverine ecosystems in North Africa watersheds.
Plan de classement
Sciences fondamentales / Techniques d'analyse et de recherche [020]
;
Sciences du milieu [021]
;
Hydrologie [062]
