Publications des scientifiques de l'IRD

Lee-Cruz L., Lenormand M., Cappelle J., Caron A., De Nys H., Peeters Martine, Bourgarel M., Roger F., Tran A. (2021). Mapping of Ebola virus spillover : suitability and seasonal variability at the landscape scale. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 15 (8), e0009683 [29 p.]. ISSN 1935-2735.

Titre du document
Mapping of Ebola virus spillover : suitability and seasonal variability at the landscape scale
Année de publication
2021
Type de document
Article référencé dans le Web of Science WOS:000687406600004
Auteurs
Lee-Cruz L., Lenormand M., Cappelle J., Caron A., De Nys H., Peeters Martine, Bourgarel M., Roger F., Tran A.
Source
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 2021, 15 (8), e0009683 [29 p.] ISSN 1935-2735
Author summary Ebola virus disease is a highly pathogenic disease transmitted from wildlife to humans. It was first described in 1976 and its distribution remained restricted to Central Africa until 2014, when an outbreak in West Africa, causing more than 28,000 cases and more than 11,000 deaths, took place. Anthropogenic factors, such as bushmeat hunting, trade and consumption, and environmental and climatic factors, may promote the contact between humans and infected animals, such as bats, primates and duikers, increasing the risk of virus transmission to the human population. In this study, we used the spatial multicriteria evaluation framework to gather all available information on risk factors and animal species susceptible to infection, and produce maps of areas suitable for Ebola virus spillover in regions in Guinea, Congo and Gabon. The resulting maps highlighted high spatial and temporal variability in the suitability for Ebola virus spillover. Data from reported cases of Ebola virus transmission from wild animals to humans were used to validate the maps. The approach developed is capable of integrating a wide diversity of risk factors, and provides a flexible and simple tool for surveillance, which can be updated as more data and knowledge on risk factors become available. The unexpected Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa in 2014 involving the Zaire ebolavirus made clear that other regions outside Central Africa, its previously documented niche, were at risk of future epidemics. The complex transmission cycle and a lack of epidemiological data make mapping areas at risk of the disease challenging. We used a Geographic Information System-based multicriteria evaluation (GIS-MCE), a knowledge-based approach, to identify areas suitable for Ebola virus spillover to humans in regions of Guinea, Congo and Gabon where Ebola viruses already emerged. We identified environmental, climatic and anthropogenic risk factors and potential hosts from a literature review. Geographical data layers, representing risk factors, were combined to produce suitability maps of Ebola virus spillover at the landscape scale. Our maps show high spatial and temporal variability in the suitability for Ebola virus spillover at a fine regional scale. Reported spillover events fell in areas of intermediate to high suitability in our maps, and a sensitivity analysis showed that the maps produced were robust. There are still important gaps in our knowledge about what factors are associated with the risk of Ebola virus spillover. As more information becomes available, maps produced using the GIS-MCE approach can be easily updated to improve surveillance and the prevention of future outbreaks.
Plan de classement
Sciences du milieu [021] ; Santé : généralités [050] ; Entomologie médicale / Parasitologie / Virologie [052] ; Sciences du monde animal [080] ; Société, développement social [106] ; Télédétection [126]
Description Géographique
GUINEE ; CONGO ; GABON
Localisation
Fonds IRD [F B010082757]
Identifiant IRD
fdi:010082757
Contact