@article{fdi:010082757,
  title = {{M}apping of {E}bola virus spillover : suitability and seasonal variability at the landscape scale},
  author = {{L}ee-{C}ruz, {L}. and {L}enormand, {M}. and {C}appelle, {J}. and {C}aron, {A}. and {D}e {N}ys, {H}. and {P}eeters, {M}artine and {B}ourgarel, {M}. and {R}oger, {F}. and {T}ran, {A}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{A}uthor summary {E}bola virus disease is a highly pathogenic disease transmitted from wildlife to humans. {I}t was first described in 1976 and its distribution remained restricted to {C}entral {A}frica until 2014, when an outbreak in {W}est {A}frica, causing more than 28,000 cases and more than 11,000 deaths, took place. {A}nthropogenic factors, such as bushmeat hunting, trade and consumption, and environmental and climatic factors, may promote the contact between humans and infected animals, such as bats, primates and duikers, increasing the risk of virus transmission to the human population. {I}n this study, we used the spatial multicriteria evaluation framework to gather all available information on risk factors and animal species susceptible to infection, and produce maps of areas suitable for {E}bola virus spillover in regions in {G}uinea, {C}ongo and {G}abon. {T}he resulting maps highlighted high spatial and temporal variability in the suitability for {E}bola virus spillover. {D}ata from reported cases of {E}bola virus transmission from wild animals to humans were used to validate the maps. {T}he approach developed is capable of integrating a wide diversity of risk factors, and provides a flexible and simple tool for surveillance, which can be updated as more data and knowledge on risk factors become available. {T}he unexpected {E}bola virus outbreak in {W}est {A}frica in 2014 involving the {Z}aire ebolavirus made clear that other regions outside {C}entral {A}frica, its previously documented niche, were at risk of future epidemics. {T}he complex transmission cycle and a lack of epidemiological data make mapping areas at risk of the disease challenging. {W}e used a {G}eographic {I}nformation {S}ystem-based multicriteria evaluation ({GIS}-{MCE}), a knowledge-based approach, to identify areas suitable for {E}bola virus spillover to humans in regions of {G}uinea, {C}ongo and {G}abon where {E}bola viruses already emerged. {W}e identified environmental, climatic and anthropogenic risk factors and potential hosts from a literature review. {G}eographical data layers, representing risk factors, were combined to produce suitability maps of {E}bola virus spillover at the landscape scale. {O}ur maps show high spatial and temporal variability in the suitability for {E}bola virus spillover at a fine regional scale. {R}eported spillover events fell in areas of intermediate to high suitability in our maps, and a sensitivity analysis showed that the maps produced were robust. {T}here are still important gaps in our knowledge about what factors are associated with the risk of {E}bola virus spillover. {A}s more information becomes available, maps produced using the {GIS}-{MCE} approach can be easily updated to improve surveillance and the prevention of future outbreaks.},
  keywords = {{GUINEE} ; {CONGO} ; {GABON}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{PL}o{S} {N}eglected {T}ropical {D}iseases},
  volume = {15},
  numero = {8},
  pages = {e0009683 [29 ]},
  ISSN = {1935-2735},
  year = {2021},
  DOI = {10.1371/journal.pntd.0009683},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010082757},
}