Menary M. B., Robson J., Allan R. P., Booth B. B., Cassou C., Gastineau G., Gregory J., Hodson D., Jones C., Mignot Juliette, Ringer M., Sutton R., Wilcox L., Zhang R. (2020). Aerosol-forced AMOC changes in CMIP6 historical simulations. Geophysical Research Letters, 47 (14), p. e2020GL088166 [10 p.]. ISSN 0094-8276.
Titre du document
Aerosol-forced AMOC changes in CMIP6 historical simulations
Année de publication
2020
Auteurs
Menary M. B., Robson J., Allan R. P., Booth B. B., Cassou C., Gastineau G., Gregory J., Hodson D., Jones C., Mignot Juliette, Ringer M., Sutton R., Wilcox L., Zhang R.
Source
Geophysical Research Letters, 2020,
47 (14), p. e2020GL088166 [10 p.] ISSN 0094-8276
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has been, and will continue to be, a key factor in the modulation of climate change both locally and globally. However, there remains considerable uncertainty in recent AMOC evolution. Here, we show that the multimodel mean AMOC strengthened by approximately 10% from 1850-1985 in new simulations from the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), a larger change than was seen in CMIP5. Across the models, the strength of the AMOC trend up to 1985 is related to a proxy for the strength of the aerosol forcing. Therefore, the multimodel difference is a result of stronger anthropogenic aerosol forcing on average in CMIP6 than CMIP5, which is primarily due to more models including aerosol-cloud interactions. However, observational constraints-including a historical sea surface temperature fingerprint and shortwave radiative forcing in recent decades-suggest that anthropogenic forcing and/or the AMOC response may be overestimated.
Plan de classement
Sciences fondamentales / Techniques d'analyse et de recherche [020]
;
Sciences du milieu [021]
;
Limnologie physique / Océanographie physique [032]
Description Géographique
ATLANTIQUE
Localisation
Fonds IRD [F B010079467]
Identifiant IRD
fdi:010079467
