Menary M. B. auteur aut IRD Robson J. auteur aut IRD Allan R. P. auteur aut IRD Booth B. B. auteur aut IRD Cassou C. auteur aut IRD Gastineau G. auteur aut IRD Gregory J. auteur aut IRD Hodson D. auteur aut IRD Jones C. auteur aut IRD Mignot Juliette auteur aut IRD Ringer M. auteur aut IRD Sutton R. auteur aut IRD Wilcox L. auteur aut IRD Zhang R. auteur aut IRD text journalArticle eng text/pdf reformatted digital access The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has been, and will continue to be, a key factor in the modulation of climate change both locally and globally. However, there remains considerable uncertainty in recent AMOC evolution. Here, we show that the multimodel mean AMOC strengthened by approximately 10% from 1850-1985 in new simulations from the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), a larger change than was seen in CMIP5. Across the models, the strength of the AMOC trend up to 1985 is related to a proxy for the strength of the aerosol forcing. Therefore, the multimodel difference is a result of stronger anthropogenic aerosol forcing on average in CMIP6 than CMIP5, which is primarily due to more models including aerosol-cloud interactions. However, observational constraints-including a historical sea surface temperature fingerprint and shortwave radiative forcing in recent decades-suggest that anthropogenic forcing and/or the AMOC response may be overestimated. specialized AMOC CMIP6 aerosols climate change historical simulations strengthening ATLANTIQUE 032 020 021 47 14 e2020GL088166 [10 p.] 2020 0094-8276 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010079467 10.1029/2020gl088166 0094-8276 [F B010079467] https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010079467 https://horizon.documentation.ird.fr/exl-doc/pleins_textes/divers20-08/010079467.pdf IRD - Base Horizon / Pleins textes 2020-09-17 2025-02-24 fdi:010079467 fre