Horizon / Plein textes La base de ressources documentaires de l'IRD

IRD

 

Publications des scientifiques de l'IRD

Roudier P., Sultan Benjamin, Quirion P., Berg Alexis. (2011). The impact of future climate change on West African crop yields : what does the recent literature say ?. Global Environmental Change, 21 (3), 1073-1083. ISSN 0959-3780

Accès réservé (Intranet IRD) Demander le PDF

Lien direct chez l'éditeur doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.04.007

En Libre Accès sur HAL https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-01905775

Titre
The impact of future climate change on West African crop yields : what does the recent literature say ?
Année de publication2011
Type de documentArticle référencé dans le Web of Science WOS:000293549000029
AuteursRoudier P., Sultan Benjamin, Quirion P., Berg Alexis.
SourceGlobal Environmental Change, 2011, 21 (3), p. 1073-1083. ISSN 0959-3780
RésuméIn West Africa, agriculture, mainly rainfed, is a major economic sector and the one most vulnerable to climate change. A meta-database of future crop yields, built up from 16 recent studies, is used to provide an overall assessment of the potential impact of climate change on yields, and to analyze sources of uncertainty. Despite a large dispersion of yield changes ranging from -50% to +90%, the median is a yield loss near -11%. This negative impact is assessed by both empirical and process-based crop models whereas the Ricardian approach gives very contrasted results, even within a single study. The predicted impact is larger in northern West Africa (Sudano-Sahelian countries, -18% median response) than in southern West Africa (Guinean countries, -13%) which is likely due to drier and warmer projections in the northern part of West Africa. Moreover, negative impacts on crop productivity increase in severity as warming intensifies, with a median yield loss near -15% with most intense warming, highlighting the importance of global warming mitigation. The consistently negative impact of climate change results mainly from the temperature whose increase projected by climate models is much larger relative to precipitation change. However, rainfall changes, still uncertain in climate projections, have the potential to exacerbate or mitigate this impact depending on whether rainfall decreases or increases. Finally, results highlight the pivotal role that the carbon fertilization effect may have on the sign and amplitude of change in crop yields. This effect is particularly strong for a high carbon dioxide concentration scenario and for C3 crops (e.g. soybean, cassava). As staple crops are mainly C4 (e.g. maize, millet, sorghum) in WA, this positive effect is less significant for the region.
Plan de classementBioclimatologie [072] ; Sciences du milieu [021]
Descr. géo.AFRIQUE DE L'OUEST
LocalisationFonds IRD [F B010053840]
Identifiant IRDfdi:010053840
Lien permanenthttp://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010053840

Export des données

Disponibilité des documents

Télechargment fichier PDF téléchargeable

Lien sur le Web lien chez l'éditeur

Accès réservé en accès réservé

HAL en libre accès sur HAL


Accès aux documents originaux :

Le FDI est labellisé CollEx

Accès direct

Bureau du chercheur

Site de la documentation

Espace intranet IST (accès réservé)

Suivi des publications IRD (accès réservé)

Mentions légales

Services Horizon

Poser une question

Consulter l'aide en ligne

Déposer une publication (accès réservé)

S'abonner au flux RSS

Voir les tableaux chronologiques et thématiques

Centres de documentation

Bondy

Montpellier (centre IRD)

Montpellier (MSE)

Cayenne

Nouméa

Papeete

Abidjan

Dakar

Niamey

Ouagadougou

Tunis

La Paz

Quito