@article{fdi:010053840,
  title = {{T}he impact of future climate change on {W}est {A}frican crop yields : what does the recent literature say ?},
  author = {{R}oudier, {P}. and {S}ultan, {B}enjamin and {Q}uirion, {P}. and {B}erg, {A}lexis},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{I}n {W}est {A}frica, agriculture, mainly rainfed, is a major economic sector and the one most vulnerable to climate change. {A} meta-database of future crop yields, built up from 16 recent studies, is used to provide an overall assessment of the potential impact of climate change on yields, and to analyze sources of uncertainty. {D}espite a large dispersion of yield changes ranging from -50% to +90%, the median is a yield loss near -11%. {T}his negative impact is assessed by both empirical and process-based crop models whereas the {R}icardian approach gives very contrasted results, even within a single study. {T}he predicted impact is larger in northern {W}est {A}frica ({S}udano-{S}ahelian countries, -18% median response) than in southern {W}est {A}frica ({G}uinean countries, -13%) which is likely due to drier and warmer projections in the northern part of {W}est {A}frica. {M}oreover, negative impacts on crop productivity increase in severity as warming intensifies, with a median yield loss near -15% with most intense warming, highlighting the importance of global warming mitigation. {T}he consistently negative impact of climate change results mainly from the temperature whose increase projected by climate models is much larger relative to precipitation change. {H}owever, rainfall changes, still uncertain in climate projections, have the potential to exacerbate or mitigate this impact depending on whether rainfall decreases or increases. {F}inally, results highlight the pivotal role that the carbon fertilization effect may have on the sign and amplitude of change in crop yields. {T}his effect is particularly strong for a high carbon dioxide concentration scenario and for {C}3 crops (e.g. soybean, cassava). {A}s staple crops are mainly {C}4 (e.g. maize, millet, sorghum) in {WA}, this positive effect is less significant for the region.},
  keywords = {{W}est {A}frica ; {A}griculture ; {C}limate change ; {F}orecast ; {C}rop model ; {Y}ield ; {AFRIQUE} {DE} {L}'{OUEST}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{G}lobal {E}nvironmental {C}hange},
  volume = {21},
  numero = {3},
  pages = {1073--1083},
  ISSN = {0959-3780},
  year = {2011},
  DOI = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.04.007},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010053840},
}