Elkouk A., El Morjani Z. E., Pokhrel Y., Chehbouni Abdelghani, Sifeddine Abdelfettah, Thober S., Bouchaou L. (2021). Multi-model ensemble projections of soil moisture drought over North Africa and the Sahel region under 1.5, 2, and 3 degrees C global warming. Climatic Change, 167 (3-4), 52 [18 p.]. ISSN 0165-0009.
Titre du document
Multi-model ensemble projections of soil moisture drought over North Africa and the Sahel region under 1.5, 2, and 3 degrees C global warming
The intensification of soil moisture drought events is an expected consequence of anthropogenic global warming. However, the implication of 1.5-3 degrees C global warming on these events remains unknown over North Africa and the Sahel region, where soil moisture plays a crucial role in food security that largely depends on rainfed agriculture. Here, using a multi-model ensemble from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b, we estimate the changes in the spatiotemporal characteristics of soil moisture drought events under increased global mean temperature. A 3 degrees C global warming results in multi-year (up to 19 years) mega-drought events over North Africa compared to a maximum drought duration of 12 years under the 1.5 degrees C Paris Agreement target. These events are projected to transform from historically severe droughts into exceptional droughts and extend over an area that is 32% larger under 3 degrees C compared to that under 1.5 degrees C. Global warming also leads to a high intensification of Sahelian drought extremes, in particular, their duration (from 24 to 82 months between 1.5 and 3 degrees C) over the western parts and their severity everywhere. Even though the results highlight substantial uncertainties arising from climate forcing and impact models, the projections indicate a tendency toward unprecedented exacerbation of soil moisture droughts that could pose serious threats to food security of North African and Sahelian societies in the absence of effective mitigation and adaptation.
Plan de classement
Sciences du milieu [021]
;
Hydrologie [062]
;
Pédologie [068]
Descripteurs
ZONE MEDITERRANEENNE
Description Géographique
AFRIQUE DU NORD ; AFRIQUE DE L'OUEST ; ZONE SAHELIENNE
