@article{fdi:010082735,
  title = {{M}ulti-model ensemble projections of soil moisture drought over {N}orth {A}frica and the {S}ahel region under 1.5, 2, and 3 degrees {C} global warming},
  author = {{E}lkouk, {A}. and {E}l {M}orjani, {Z}. {E}. and {P}okhrel, {Y}. and {C}hehbouni, {A}bdelghani and {S}ifeddine, {A}bdelfettah and {T}hober, {S}. and {B}ouchaou, {L}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}he intensification of soil moisture drought events is an expected consequence of anthropogenic global warming. {H}owever, the implication of 1.5-3 degrees {C} global warming on these events remains unknown over {N}orth {A}frica and the {S}ahel region, where soil moisture plays a crucial role in food security that largely depends on rainfed agriculture. {H}ere, using a multi-model ensemble from the {I}nter-{S}ectoral {I}mpact {M}odel {I}ntercomparison {P}roject phase 2b, we estimate the changes in the spatiotemporal characteristics of soil moisture drought events under increased global mean temperature. {A} 3 degrees {C} global warming results in multi-year (up to 19 years) mega-drought events over {N}orth {A}frica compared to a maximum drought duration of 12 years under the 1.5 degrees {C} {P}aris {A}greement target. {T}hese events are projected to transform from historically severe droughts into exceptional droughts and extend over an area that is 32% larger under 3 degrees {C} compared to that under 1.5 degrees {C}. {G}lobal warming also leads to a high intensification of {S}ahelian drought extremes, in particular, their duration (from 24 to 82 months between 1.5 and 3 degrees {C}) over the western parts and their severity everywhere. {E}ven though the results highlight substantial uncertainties arising from climate forcing and impact models, the projections indicate a tendency toward unprecedented exacerbation of soil moisture droughts that could pose serious threats to food security of {N}orth {A}frican and {S}ahelian societies in the absence of effective mitigation and adaptation.},
  keywords = {{ZONE} {MEDITERRANEENNE} ; {G}lobal warming ; {S}oil moisture ; {D}rought ; {N}orth {A}frica ; {S}ahel ; {AFRIQUE} {DU} {NORD} ; {AFRIQUE} {DE} {L}'{OUEST} ; {ZONE} {SAHELIENNE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{C}limatic {C}hange},
  volume = {167},
  numero = {3-4},
  pages = {52 [18 ]},
  ISSN = {0165-0009},
  year = {2021},
  DOI = {10.1007/s10584-021-03202-0},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010082735},
}