%0 Journal Article
%9 ACL : Articles dans des revues avec comité de lecture répertoriées par l'AERES
%A Elkouk, A.
%A El Morjani, Z. E.
%A Pokhrel, Y.
%A Chehbouni, Abdelghani
%A Sifeddine, Abdelfettah
%A Thober, S.
%A Bouchaou, L.
%T Multi-model ensemble projections of soil moisture drought over North Africa and the Sahel region under 1.5, 2, and 3 degrees C global warming
%D 2021
%L fdi:010082735
%G ENG
%J Climatic Change
%@ 0165-0009
%K ZONE MEDITERRANEENNE
%K Global warming ; Soil moisture ; Drought ; North Africa ; Sahel
%K AFRIQUE DU NORD ; AFRIQUE DE L'OUEST ; ZONE SAHELIENNE
%M ISI:000688021400002
%N 3-4
%P 52 [18 ]
%R 10.1007/s10584-021-03202-0
%U https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010082735
%> https://www.documentation.ird.fr/intranet/publi/2021-10/010082735.pdf
%V 167
%W Horizon (IRD)
%X The intensification of soil moisture drought events is an expected consequence of anthropogenic global warming. However, the implication of 1.5-3 degrees C global warming on these events remains unknown over North Africa and the Sahel region, where soil moisture plays a crucial role in food security that largely depends on rainfed agriculture. Here, using a multi-model ensemble from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b, we estimate the changes in the spatiotemporal characteristics of soil moisture drought events under increased global mean temperature. A 3 degrees C global warming results in multi-year (up to 19 years) mega-drought events over North Africa compared to a maximum drought duration of 12 years under the 1.5 degrees C Paris Agreement target. These events are projected to transform from historically severe droughts into exceptional droughts and extend over an area that is 32% larger under 3 degrees C compared to that under 1.5 degrees C. Global warming also leads to a high intensification of Sahelian drought extremes, in particular, their duration (from 24 to 82 months between 1.5 and 3 degrees C) over the western parts and their severity everywhere. Even though the results highlight substantial uncertainties arising from climate forcing and impact models, the projections indicate a tendency toward unprecedented exacerbation of soil moisture droughts that could pose serious threats to food security of North African and Sahelian societies in the absence of effective mitigation and adaptation.
%$ 068 ; 021 ; 062