Eekhout J. P. C., Boutaghane H., Dakhlaoui H., El Khalki E., Uysal G., Serrano S. M. V., Tramblay Yves, de Vente J. (2026). Vegetation greening and reservoir construction as drivers of century-long discharge trends in the Mediterranean Basin. Journal of Hydrology, 672, p. 135387 [14 p.]. ISSN 0022-1694.
Titre du document
Vegetation greening and reservoir construction as drivers of century-long discharge trends in the Mediterranean Basin
Eekhout J. P. C., Boutaghane H., Dakhlaoui H., El Khalki E., Uysal G., Serrano S. M. V., Tramblay Yves, de Vente J.
Source
Journal of Hydrology, 2026,
672, p. 135387 [14 p.] ISSN 0022-1694
The Mediterranean Basin is typically classified as a region with decreasing streamflow trends since the 1960s, despite high variability in precipitation. Here we evaluated over a century of discharge trends (1914-2022) using data obtained from 654 discharge stations across the Mediterranean Basin from national and continental discharge databases. We assessed several drivers of discharge trends, including climate change, vegetation greening and reservoir construction. Trends in mean discharge align mostly with precipitation trends, showing distinct periods of statistically significant increasing (1941-1971) and decreasing discharge (1961-2000). Yet, mean discharge has been remarkably stable between 1981 and 2020, diverging from the significantly increasing precipitation trends during this period. Multiple linear regression confirmed that recent precipitation and vegetation greenness trends have an equally strong but counteracting effect on runoff trends. Reservoir construction caused a further consistent decrease in mean and maximum discharge, and weakened the natural discharge regime. Our study concludes that over the last century, discharge trends in the Mediterranean Basin can only partly be explained by precipitation variability. Reservoir construction and recent vegetation greening are identified as additional strong drivers of discharge trends.
Plan de classement
Sciences du milieu [021]
;
Hydrologie [062]
;
Etudes, transformation, conservation du milieu naturel [082]
Description Géographique
PAYS MEDITERRANEENS ; MEDITERRANEEN BASSIN ; ZONE MEDITERRANEENNE
