Mogollon R., Colas François, Echevin Vincent, Tam J., Espinoza-Morriberon D. (2026). Three decades of interannual variability in modeled primary production in the Peruvian Upwelling Region (1993-2022). Ocean Modelling, 200, p. 102669 [11 p.]. ISSN 1463-5003.
Titre du document
Three decades of interannual variability in modeled primary production in the Peruvian Upwelling Region (1993-2022)
Mogollon R., Colas François, Echevin Vincent, Tam J., Espinoza-Morriberon D.
Source
Ocean Modelling, 2026,
200, p. 102669 [11 p.] ISSN 1463-5003
This study explores three decades (1993-2022) of interannual variability in primary production (PP) using a coupled physical-biogeochemical model. A long-term positive trend in the vertically-integrated PP was found in both the central and northern domains, exceeding 6 mol C m-2 yr-1 per decade, highlighting an increasing contribution of these regions to overall productivity. Over the study period, the region produced a cumulative 8.6 billion metric tons of carbon, underscoring its substantial role as a carbon sink despite its relatively small spatial extent. Interannual climatic events strongly modulated PP. Negative PP anomalies during El Niño events and positive PP anomalies during La Niña phases were primarily constrained within the first 10 m depths. The sensitivity analysis demonstrated that biological drivers, particularly chlorophyll concentration and phytoplankton biomass, dominated PP variability, accounting for over 95% of the explained variance. Physical factors, such as light availability, temperature, played secondary but significant roles during extreme events, modulating PP alongside biological processes. Overall, the findings reveal a resilient yet highly dynamic system, with long-term increases in productivity counterbalanced by episodic disruptions tied to interannual climatic variability. These results emphasize the importance of biological drivers in sustaining productivity and provide valuable insights into the factors shaping the variability and trends in this highly productive marine ecosystem.
Plan de classement
Sciences fondamentales / Techniques d'analyse et de recherche [020]
;
Sciences du milieu [021]
;
Limnologie physique / Océanographie physique [032]
