Lacroix Pascal, Huanca J., Angel L. A., Taipe E. (2023). Precursory motion and time-of-failure prediction of the Achoma landslide, Peru, from high frequency PlanetScope satellites. Geophysical Research Letters, 50 (19), p. e2023GL105413 [11 p.]. ISSN 0094-8276.
Titre du document
Precursory motion and time-of-failure prediction of the Achoma landslide, Peru, from high frequency PlanetScope satellites
Geophysical Research Letters, 2023,
50 (19), p. e2023GL105413 [11 p.] ISSN 0094-8276
Landslide time-of-failure prediction is crucial in natural hazards, often requiring precise measurements from in situ instruments. This instrumentation is not always possible, and remote-sensing techniques have been questioned for detecting precursors and predicting landslides. Here, based on high frequency acquisitions of the PlanetScope satellite constellation, we study the kinematics of a large landslide located in Peru that failed in June 2020. We show that the landslide underwent a progressive acceleration in the 3 months before its failure, reaching at most 8 m of total displacement. The high frequency of satellite revisit allows us to apply the popular Fukuzono method for landslide time-of-failure prediction, with sufficient confidence for faster moving areas of the landslide. These results open new opportunities for landslide precursors detection from space, but also show the probable seldom applicability of the optical satellites for landslide time-of-failure prediction. Many catastrophic landslides are preceded by specific movements, for example, a constant increase in velocity over time. These accelerations form the basis for predicting the landslide time-of-failure. The measurement of these movements is usually based on instruments installed on the landslide itself. However, this instrumentation is not always possible and, in recent years, the acquisition of satellite images at increasingly higher frequencies (e.g., PlanetScope satellites with a revisit frequency of less than 1 day) has raised interest in landslide monitoring and prediction. In order to assess the capability of PlanetScope satellites for this prediction, we analyze here the pre-failure movements of a large landslide in southern Peru, which collapsed in June 2020 and dammed a river. We show that the landslide underwent a progressive acceleration in the 3 months prior to its failure, reaching a total displacement of 8 m. Based on the displacement time-series of the fastest areas of the landslide, we predict the landslide time-of-failure 3 weeks in advance. Despite these encouraging results for landslide precursor detection from space, this study also shows the seldom use of optical satellites for landslide time-of-failure prediction. High frequency optical satellites can detect the acceleration precursory to the Achoma landslide failureThe acceleration follows a Voight law, classical of the tertiary creep of materialsThe time-series of ground displacement may be used to predict the time-of-failure for pixels of total displacement larger than 5 m
Plan de classement
Géologie et formations superficielles [064]
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Télédétection [126]
