Boucharel J., Almar Rafaël, Kestenare Elodie, Jin F. F. (2021). On the influence of ENSO complexity on Pan-Pacific coastal wave extremes. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 118 (47), e2115599118 [9 p.]. ISSN 0027-8424.
Titre du document
On the influence of ENSO complexity on Pan-Pacific coastal wave extremes
Boucharel J., Almar Rafaël, Kestenare Elodie, Jin F. F.
Source
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2021,
118 (47), e2115599118 [9 p.] ISSN 0027-8424
Wind-generated waves are dominant drivers of coastal dynamics and vulnerability, which have considerable impacts on littoral eco-systems and socioeconomic activities. It is therefore paramount to improve coastal hazards predictions through the better understanding of connections between wave activity and climate variability. In the Pacific, the dominant climate mode is El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which has known a renaissance of scientific interest leading to great theoretical advances in the past decade. Yet studies on ENSO's coastal impacts still rely on the oversimplified picture of the canonical dipole across the Pacific. Here, we consider the full ENSO variety to delineate its essential teleconnection pathways to tropical and extratropical storminess. These robust seasonally modulated relationships allow us to develop a mathematical model of coastal wave modulation essentially driven by ENSO's complex temporal and spatial behavior. Accounting for this nonlinear climate control on Pan-Pacific wave activity leads to a much better characterization of waves' seasonal to interannual variability (+25% in explained variance) and intensity of extremes (+60% for strong ENSO events), therefore paving the way for significantly more accurate forecasts than formerly possible with the previous baseline understanding of ENSO's influence on coastal hazards.
Plan de classement
Sciences du milieu [021]
;
Limnologie physique / Océanographie physique [032]
Description Géographique
PACIFIQUE ; ETATS UNIS ; HAWAII ; JAPON ; PHILIPPINES ; AUSTRALIE ; PEROU
