De Haas H., Czaika M., Flahaux Marie-Laurence, Mahendra E., Natter K., Vezzoli S., Villares‐Varela M. (2018). International migration : trends, determinants and policy effects.
Oxford : IMI, 59 p. multigr. (Working Paper Series - IMI ; 142).
Titre du document
International migration : trends, determinants and policy effects
Année de publication
Type de document
De Haas H., Czaika M., Flahaux Marie-Laurence, Mahendra E., Natter K., Vezzoli S., Villares‐Varela M.
Oxford : IMI, 2018,
59 p. multigr. (Working Paper Series - IMI ; 142).
What have been the main trends and drivers of international migration over the last century,
and to what extent have migration policies been effective in shaping the volume, direction,
timing, and selection of immigration and emigration? This paper reviews the insights on
migration trends, determinants and policy effects gained through the DEMIG (Determinants
of International Migration) project. Questioning popular perceptions of accelerating
international migration, the increase in global migration has remained proportional to the
increase in world population. The main migratory shifts in the second half of the twentieth
century have been directional, particularly through the decline of Europe as an area of origin
and the emergence of Europe and the Gulf as new global destinations. This shift in migration
movements towards Europe has been associated by an overall liberalisation of migration
policies, which have increasingly focused on the selecting of migrants rather than controlling
numbers per se. Most rules around legal entry, stay and exit of migrants have been relaxed,
but a combination of visa and border control policies have served to prevent the entry of
asylum seekers and other "unwanted" migrants. Our analysis shows that it would therefore be
excessive to conclude that borders are "beyond control" (cf. Bhagwati 2003), and that
migration policies are generally effective. Yet several "substitution effects" limit or undermine
the effectiveness of migration controls by (1) redirecting migration through other
geographical routes and destinations (spatial substitution), (2) diverting migration through
other legal and unauthorized channels (categorical substitution), (3) "now or never"
migration surges in anticipation of restrictions (intertemporal substitution) and (4)
discouraging return and interrupting circulation (reverse flow substitution). These expose
fundamental policy dilemmas as well as the importance to look beyond migration policies.
Our results show the importance of accounting for the complex and often counterintuitive
ways in which structural social, economic, and political factors affect migration in mostly
indirect, but powerful ways that largely lie beyond the reach of migration policies.
Plan de classement
MIGRATION INTERNATIONALE ; HISTOIRE ; EVOLUTION ; RELATIONS NORD SUD ; CONFLIT POLITIQUE ; INEGALITE SOCIALE ; PAUVRETE ; MARCHE DU TRAVAIL ; ANALYSE STATISTIQUE ; ANALYSE DIACHRONIQUE ; POLITIQUE MIGRATOIRE ; DYNAMIQUE MIGRATOIRE
Fonds IRD [F B010078391]