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Hertig E., Tramblay Yves. (2017). Regional downscaling of Mediterranean droughts under past and future climatic conditions. In : Lionello P. (ed.), Ozsoy E. (ed.), Planton S. (ed.), Zanchetta G. (ed.) Climate variability and change in the Mediterranean region. Global and Planetary Change, 151 (No Special), 36-48. ISSN 0921-8181

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Lien direct chez l'éditeur doi:10.1016/j.gloPlacha.2016.10.015

Regional downscaling of Mediterranean droughts under past and future climatic conditions
Année de publication2017
Type de documentArticle référencé dans le Web of Science WOS:000405251100005
AuteursHertig E., Tramblay Yves.
InLionello P. (ed.), Ozsoy E. (ed.), Planton S. (ed.), Zanchetta G. (ed.) Climate variability and change in the Mediterranean region
SourceGlobal and Planetary Change, 2017, 151 (No Special), p. 36-48. ISSN 0921-8181
RésuméThe complexity of the Mediterranean climate with its high precipitation variability and its unequal seasonal distribution with a wet season from approximately October to April and a dry season in summer set general conditions for a high vulnerability of the Mediterranean area to droughts. In the last few decades the risk of drought episodes appears to be enhanced in the Mediterranean area due to temperature increases combined with precipitation decreases. This general change towards warmer and dryer conditions is expected to continue in the future. In the present study droughts are represented by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), at 114 stations located across the Mediterranean area. The SPI is a normalized measure of drought severity relative to a specific location, obtained from rainfall totals aggregated over different time periods. This allows a comparison of different locations and the delineation of homogeneous regions with similar SPI variability. 13 regions have been identified. A downscaling approach using circulation types based on geopotential heights and relative humidity as predictors has been set up to downscale the SPI time series in the different regions. The downscaling approach has been validated using running 21 years validation periods, in order to assess the skill of the method during different climatic conditions and to detect possible non-stationarities in the predictors-predictand relationships. Results show that the downscaling method provided satisfactory results, except for the most arid regions. Future projections, provided from a three member ensemble of the MPI-ESM-LR model under scenario RCP 8.5, indicate an increase in the drought severity and occurrence for the whole Mediterranean region for the period 2070-2100.
Plan de classementHydrologie [062] ; Sciences du milieu [021]
LocalisationFonds IRD [F B010070289]
Identifiant IRDfdi:010070289
Lien permanenthttp://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010070289

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