@article{fdi:010070289,
  title = {{R}egional downscaling of {M}editerranean droughts under past and future climatic conditions},
  author = {{H}ertig, {E}. and {T}ramblay, {Y}ves},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}he complexity of the {M}editerranean climate with its high precipitation variability and its unequal seasonal distribution with a wet season from approximately {O}ctober to {A}pril and a dry season in summer set general conditions for a high vulnerability of the {M}editerranean area to droughts. {I}n the last few decades the risk of drought episodes appears to be enhanced in the {M}editerranean area due to temperature increases combined with precipitation decreases. {T}his general change towards warmer and dryer conditions is expected to continue in the future. {I}n the present study droughts are represented by the {S}tandardized {P}recipitation {I}ndex ({SPI}), at 114 stations located across the {M}editerranean area. {T}he {SPI} is a normalized measure of drought severity relative to a specific location, obtained from rainfall totals aggregated over different time periods. {T}his allows a comparison of different locations and the delineation of homogeneous regions with similar {SPI} variability. 13 regions have been identified. {A} downscaling approach using circulation types based on geopotential heights and relative humidity as predictors has been set up to downscale the {SPI} time series in the different regions. {T}he downscaling approach has been validated using running 21 years validation periods, in order to assess the skill of the method during different climatic conditions and to detect possible non-stationarities in the predictors-predictand relationships. {R}esults show that the downscaling method provided satisfactory results, except for the most arid regions. {F}uture projections, provided from a three member ensemble of the {MPI}-{ESM}-{LR} model under scenario {RCP} 8.5, indicate an increase in the drought severity and occurrence for the whole {M}editerranean region for the period 2070-2100.},
  keywords = {{D}roughts ; {M}editerranean area ; {C}limate change ; {S}tatistical downscaling ; {MEDITERRANEE} ; {ZONE} {MEDITERRANEENNE}},
  booktitle = {{C}limate variability and change in the {M}editerranean region},
  journal = {{G}lobal and {P}lanetary {C}hange},
  volume = {151},
  numero = {{N}o {S}pecial},
  pages = {36--48},
  ISSN = {0921-8181},
  year = {2017},
  DOI = {10.1016/j.glo{P}lacha.2016.10.015},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010070289},
}