Ecology Letters, 2017,
20 (5), p. 591-598 ISSN 1461-023X
A new model of delayed species loss (extinction debt) within isolated communities is applied to a large data set of terrestrial vertebrate assemblages (n = 188) occupying habitat fragments or islands varying greatly in size and age. The model encapsulates previous approaches based on diversity-dependent (DD) extinction rates while allowing for a more flexible treatment of temporal dynamics. Three important results emerge. First, species loss rate slows down with the age of the isolate, a strong and general pattern largely unnoticed so far. Secondly, while being good candidates in the light of previous works, DD models fail to account for this pattern, a result that necessitates a search for other mechanisms. Thirdly, a simple diversity-independent model based on area (converted into population size) and age explains 97% of the variability in species loss rate and appears to be a promising predictive tool to handle extinction debt following habitat loss.
Plan de classement
Sciences fondamentales / Techniques d'analyse et de recherche [020]
;
Etudes, transformation, conservation du milieu naturel [082]