%0 Journal Article %9 ACL : Articles dans des revues avec comité de lecture répertoriées par l'AERES %A Hugueny, Bernard %T Age-area scaling of extinction debt within isolated terrestrial vertebrate assemblages %D 2017 %L fdi:010069501 %G ENG %J Ecology Letters %@ 1461-023X %K Amphibians ; birds ; conservation biology ; diversity dependence ; habitat fragmentation ; insular biogeography ; mammals ; relaxation ; reptiles %M ISI:000399361500003 %N 5 %P 591-598 %R 10.1111/ele.12756 %U https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010069501 %> https://www.documentation.ird.fr/intranet/publi/2017/05/010069501.pdf %V 20 %W Horizon (IRD) %X A new model of delayed species loss (extinction debt) within isolated communities is applied to a large data set of terrestrial vertebrate assemblages (n = 188) occupying habitat fragments or islands varying greatly in size and age. The model encapsulates previous approaches based on diversity-dependent (DD) extinction rates while allowing for a more flexible treatment of temporal dynamics. Three important results emerge. First, species loss rate slows down with the age of the isolate, a strong and general pattern largely unnoticed so far. Secondly, while being good candidates in the light of previous works, DD models fail to account for this pattern, a result that necessitates a search for other mechanisms. Thirdly, a simple diversity-independent model based on area (converted into population size) and age explains 97% of the variability in species loss rate and appears to be a promising predictive tool to handle extinction debt following habitat loss. %$ 082 ; 020