Guan K. Y., Sultan Benjamin, Biasutti M., Baron C., Lobell D. B. (2015). What aspects of future rainfall changes matter for crop yields in West Africa ?. Geophysical Research Letters, 42 (19), p. 8001-8010. ISSN 0094-8276.
Titre du document
What aspects of future rainfall changes matter for crop yields in West Africa ?
Guan K. Y., Sultan Benjamin, Biasutti M., Baron C., Lobell D. B.
Source
Geophysical Research Letters, 2015,
42 (19), p. 8001-8010 ISSN 0094-8276
How rainfall arrives, in terms of its frequency, intensity, the timing and duration of rainy season, may have a large influence on rainfed agriculture. However, a thorough assessment of these effects is largely missing. This study combines a new synthetic rainfall model and two independently validated crop models (APSIM and SARRA-H) to assess sorghum yield response to possible shifts in seasonal rainfall characteristics in West Africa. We find that shifts in total rainfall amount primarily drive the rainfall-related crop yield change, with less relevance to intraseasonal rainfall features. However, dry regions (total annual rainfall below 500mm/yr) have a high sensitivity to rainfall frequency and intensity, and more intense rainfall events have greater benefits for crop yield than more frequent rainfall. Delayed monsoon onset may negatively impact yields. Our study implies that future changes in seasonal rainfall characteristics should be considered in designing specific crop adaptations in West Africa.
Plan de classement
Sciences fondamentales / Techniques d'analyse et de recherche [020]
;
Sciences du milieu [021]
;
Hydrologie [062]
;
Sciences du monde végétal [076]
