@book{fdi:010097745,
  title = {{U}ncertainty sources in a large ensemble of hydrological projections across diverse hydroclimates : characterization and take-home messages for stakeholders},
  author = {{H}ingray, {B}. and {E}vin, {G}. and {S}auquet, {E}. and {R}everdy, {A}. and {D}ucharne, {A}. and {A}rnaud, {P}. and {B}onneau, {J}. and {C}orre, {L}. and {G}ailhard, {J}. and {H}endrickx, {F}. and {H}{\'e}raut, {L}. and {H}uang, {P}. and {L}e {L}ay, {M}. and {M}agand, {C}. and {M}arson, {P}. and {M}unier, {S}. and {P}errin, {C}. and {R}obin, {Y}. and {R}ousset, {F}. and {S}oubeyroux, {J}.{M}. and {S}trohmenger, {L}. and {T}hirel, {G}. and {T}ramblay, {Y}ves and {V}idal, {J}.{P}. and {V}rac, {M}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{R}obust adaptation to hydrological climate change requires an assessment of possible climate and hydrological futures at different scales. {E}xplore2 is a recent multimodel ensemble of hydrological projections developed to accompany local adaptation plans for metropolitan {F}rance and {C}orsica, a 550,000 km2 wide territory with a large diversity of climate and hydrological regimes ({S}auquet et al. 2024). {T}he {E}xplore2 ensemble provides transient projections of daily river flow for more than 4'000 locations on {F}rench rivers. {P}rojections have been obtained for three {RCP} emission scenarios with 4 to 9 hydrological models ({HM}s) driven by 36 bias adjusted regional climate projections (36 {EUROCORDEX} projections obtained for a number of different {GCM}/{RCM} combinations, {M}arson et al. 2024). {E}xplore2 projections, making no exception, come with sometimes large uncertainty ({E}vin et al., 2024). {T}his uncertainty has been characterized and analyzed with {Q}ualypso ({E}vin et al. 2021) for different climate and hydrological metrics. {Q}ualypso is an advanced {ANOVA} approach, based on the quasi-ergodic assumption for transient climate projections ({H}ingray et {S}aid, 2014) and applicable for unbalanced datasets. {I}t allows to disentangle and prioritize the different components of uncertainty, namely emission scenario uncertainty, the different components of model uncertainty ({GCM} uncertainty, {RCM} uncertainty, {HM} uncertainty) and uncertainty due to climate internal variability. {I}n this work, we examine the following questions: {W}hat are the projected changes for different climate and hydrological metrics for metropolitan {F}rance and {C}orsica (e.g. precipitation, annual discharge, high and low flows) and how strong do the modelling chains agree on projections? {H}ow do scenario uncertainty and the different components of model uncertainty contribute to the total uncertainty in projections and what additional variability is introduced by internal variability of climate? {W}hat are the main effects of each model compared to the others and are there highly contrasting chains ? {H}ow do the results depend on location and/or hydroclimatic context ? {W}hat messages can be conveyed to stakeholders about the future of climate and hydrology in {F}rance ?},
  keywords = {{FRANCE} ; {CORSE}},
  address = {{G}{\¨o}ttingen},
  publisher = {{EGU} {G}eneral {A}ssembly},
  series = {},
  pages = {{EGU}25-18641 [1 ]},
  year = {2025},
  DOI = {10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18641},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010097745},
}