@article{fdi:010097506,
  title = {{S}ensitivity of simulated storm surge to tropical cyclone wind forcing around islands : insights from {H}urricane {I}rma},
  author = {{Z}ribi, {A}. and {J}ullien, {S}. and {H}erry, {N}ils and {B}ertin, {X}. and {D}odet, {G}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{I}n {S}eptember 2017, {C}ategory-5 {H}urricane {I}rma made landfall on the small islands of {B}arbuda and {S}aint {M}artin, causing exceptional and devastating storm surges. {U}nderstanding such extreme surges is essential for improving their forecast and designing effective risk management strategies. {O}ne of the main challenge for their accurate modelling lies in the strong uncertainties in the characterisation and representation of tropical cyclone ({TC}) atmospheric conditions. {T}he present study investigates the sensitivity of simulated surge to {TC} position, wind intensity, structure, and surface stress formulation, through experiments based on scenarios exploring their range of uncertainty. {S}imulations with the {C}oastal and {R}egional {O}cean {CO}mmunity model reveal that the surge peak (over 2 m) at two tide gauge locations is primarily driven by extreme winds in the cyclone eyewall, and is correctly captured only when specific cyclone track and wind stress intensity are met, while being completely missed when relying on global atmospheric reanalysis winds. {R}elative to a reference simulation, changes in the wind stress formulation or the {TC} position reveal variations in the peak surge amplitude of up to 52% and 44%, respectively. {M}eanwhile, the peak surge duration is highly sensitive to the wind structure. {T}he impact of structure and track is also shown to be strongly site-dependent. {T}hese results highlight the need for realistic cyclone intensities, structures, and tracks for an accurate surge modelling, especially when intense cyclones pass over, or at a few kilometres, from volcanic islands. {T}hey also provide guidance on the {TC} uncertainties to be accounted for when simulating surge, since deriving cyclone characteristics, even from state-of-the-art observations, remains challenging.},
  keywords = {{S}torm surge ; {T}ropical cyclone ; {U}ncertainties ; {P}arametric forcing ; {M}odelling ; {H}urricane {I}rma ; {ATLANTIQUE} ; {CARAIBE} ; {PETITES} {ANTILLES} ; {ANTIGUA} {ET} {BARBUDA} ; {SAINT} {MARTIN} {ILE} ; {ATLANTIQUE} {NORD}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{O}cean {M}odelling},
  volume = {203},
  numero = {},
  pages = {102780 [22 p.]},
  ISSN = {1463-5003},
  year = {2026},
  DOI = {10.1016/j.ocemod.2026.102780},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010097506},
}