@article{fdi:010097481,
  title = {{I}nfluence of both {L}a {N}ina and island isolation during {COVID}-19 on the epidemiology of infectious diseases in {N}ew {C}aledonia},
  author = {{M}oury, {P}. {H}. and {G}ourinat, {A}. {C}. and {S}uveges, {M}. and {D}elrieu, {M}. and {D}upont-{R}ouzeyrol, {M}. and {M}enk{\`e}s, {C}hristophe and {S}oler, {N}athanaelle and {C}azorla, {C}. and {B}iron, {A}. and {F}lahault, {A}. and {M}angeas, {M}organ and {R}ay, {N}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{B}ackground and {O}bjectives: {N}ew {C}aledonia, an archipelago in the {S}outh {P}acific, experienced an unprecedented conjunction of prolonged border closure during the {COVID}-19 pandemic (2020 to 2022) and marked influence of the {E}l {N}iño/{S}outhern {O}scillation ({ENSO}). {T}his context provided a unique opportunity to explore how environmental drivers, island isolation, and socio-demographic factors interact to shape infectious disease dynamics. {T}his study aimed to assess the respective and combined effects of climatic variability, travel restrictions, and socio-demographic factors on the dynamics of four priority infectious diseases. {M}aterials and {M}ethods: {W}e retrospectively analysed data from 2017 to 2023 on four infectious diseases: leptospirosis, dengue, influenza, and hepatitis {A} ({HAV}). {S}atellite precipitation data and the {M}ultivariate {E}l {N}iño/{S}outhern {O}scillation {I}ndex ({MEI}) were used. {S}ocio-demographic and economic variables were gathered. {S}tatistical analyses employed descriptive analysis and {G}eneralized {A}dditive {M}ixed {M}odels to evaluate the associations between climatic events, travel restrictions, and disease circulation using the communal level as a random effect and time (daily) as a spline effect. {R}esults: {W}e analysed 878 cases of leptospirosis, 165 of {HAV}, 6607 of influenza, and 7377 dengue cases. {I}nfluenza was associated with rainfall before lockdown ({O}dds {R}atio ({OR}) 0.7, {C}onfidence interval 95%, ({CI}95%), (0.6-0.8)) and disappeared during lockdown but resurged post-reopening losing its meteorological association. {D}engue epidemics declined, coinciding with the {W}olbachia program and border closure, and were associated with lower {MEI} ({OR} 0.78, {CI}95% (0.6-1) during the 2017 to 2020 period. {HAV} cases were correlated with the {MEI} ({OR}: 1.8, {CI}95% (1-3.3)). {L}eptospirosis cases were associated with cumulative rainfall ({OR} 1.12 (1.1-1.2)) and lower education ({OR} 1.04, {CI}95% (1-1.1)) and decreased with water supply ({OR} 0.7, {CI}95% (0.5-0.8)). {C}onclusions: {O}ur findings highlight how climatic conditions, mobility restrictions, and socio-environmental inequities differentially shape infectious disease risks in island ecosystems. {T}hese results reinforce the need for integrated {O}ne {H}ealth surveillance that jointly addresses environmental change, social vulnerability, and infectious disease prevention.},
  keywords = {emergent infectious diseases ; water-borne diseases ; vector-borne ; disease ; travel ; leptospirosis ; dengue ; influenza ; {E}l {N}iño/{S}outhern {O}scillation ; {ENSO} ; {NOUVELLE} {CALEDONIE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{E}pidemiologia},
  volume = {7},
  numero = {3},
  pages = {70 [14 p.]},
  year = {2026},
  DOI = {10.3390/epidemiologia7030070},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010097481},
}