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<oai_dc:dc xmlns:oai_dc="http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc/" xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xsi:schemaLocation="http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc/ http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc.xsd">
  <dc:title>Convection-permitting regional climate simulations reveal stronger drying and snow loss in semi-arid mountainous basins of Morocco</dc:title>
  <dc:creator>Lahnik, O.</dc:creator>
  <dc:creator>/Tramblay, Yves</dc:creator>
  <dc:creator>/Lguensat, Redouane</dc:creator>
  <dc:creator>Bastin, S.</dc:creator>
  <dc:creator>Robin, Y.</dc:creator>
  <dc:creator>Andersson, J. C. M.</dc:creator>
  <dc:creator>Hanich, L.</dc:creator>
  <dc:subject>bias correction (CDF-T)</dc:subject>
  <dc:subject>climate change impacts</dc:subject>
  <dc:subject>convection-permitting</dc:subject>
  <dc:subject>climate model</dc:subject>
  <dc:subject>mountain hydrology</dc:subject>
  <dc:subject>RegIPSL</dc:subject>
  <dc:subject>snow processes</dc:subject>
  <dc:description>Mountainous basins in semi-arid regions are among the most climate-sensitive environments, yet their hydro-climatic processes remain poorly represented by regional climate models. This study provides the first hydrological evaluation of a convection-permitting regional climate model (WRF3) with a spatial resolution of 3 km in mountainous basins of Morocco in North Africa, using a multi-model hydrological framework (HYPE and GR4J-CemaNeige). Results show that hydrological simulations forced by the convection-permitting WRF3 model provide a better agreement with observed streamflow and a set of different hydrological signatures than those forced by the coarser, convection-parameterized WRF20 model (20 km). Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the projections indicate precipitation decreases of 31%-62%, increases in potential evapotranspiration of 16%-27%, and streamflow reductions ranging from 64%-87%, depending on the climate forcing (WRF3 versus WRF20). There is a systematically stronger reduction in water resources in WRF3 projections than in WRF20 that is consistent across different basins. Snow contributions decline more strongly in simulations forced by the convection-permitting regional climate model (WFR3), leading to a shift from a snow-dominated to a predominantly rain-dominated hydrological regime. These results highlight the added value of high-resolution climate modelling in capturing fine-scale mountain processes, strengthening the confidence in climate-impact assessments, and also reveal the severe vulnerability of semi-arid mountainous water resources to future warming. The more pessimistic scenarios obtained with the convection-permitting regional climate model call for a reassessment of currently available scenarios for future water resources in semi-arid mountainous regions obtained with coarse resolution climate models.</dc:description>
  <dc:date>2026</dc:date>
  <dc:type>text</dc:type>
  <dc:identifier>https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010097367</dc:identifier>
  <dc:identifier>fdi:010097367</dc:identifier>
  <dc:identifier>Lahnik O., Tramblay Yves, Lguensat Redouane, Bastin S., Robin Y., Andersson J. C. M., Hanich L.. Convection-permitting regional climate simulations reveal stronger drying and snow loss in semi-arid mountainous basins of Morocco. 2026, 40 (6),  e70590 [18 p.]</dc:identifier>
  <dc:language>EN</dc:language>
  <dc:coverage>MAROC</dc:coverage>
  <dc:coverage>ZONE SEMIARIDE</dc:coverage>
</oai_dc:dc>
