@article{fdi:010097367,
  title = {{C}onvection-permitting regional climate simulations reveal stronger drying and snow loss in semi-arid mountainous basins of {M}orocco},
  author = {{L}ahnik, {O}. and {T}ramblay, {Y}ves and {L}guensat, {R}edouane and {B}astin, {S}. and {R}obin, {Y}. and {A}ndersson, {J}. {C}. {M}. and {H}anich, {L}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{M}ountainous basins in semi-arid regions are among the most climate-sensitive environments, yet their hydro-climatic processes remain poorly represented by regional climate models. {T}his study provides the first hydrological evaluation of a convection-permitting regional climate model ({WRF}3) with a spatial resolution of 3 km in mountainous basins of {M}orocco in {N}orth {A}frica, using a multi-model hydrological framework ({HYPE} and {GR}4{J}-{C}ema{N}eige). {R}esults show that hydrological simulations forced by the convection-permitting {WRF}3 model provide a better agreement with observed streamflow and a set of different hydrological signatures than those forced by the coarser, convection-parameterized {WRF}20 model (20 km). {U}nder the {SSP}5-8.5 scenario, the projections indicate precipitation decreases of 31%-62%, increases in potential evapotranspiration of 16%-27%, and streamflow reductions ranging from 64%-87%, depending on the climate forcing ({WRF}3 versus {WRF}20). {T}here is a systematically stronger reduction in water resources in {WRF}3 projections than in {WRF}20 that is consistent across different basins. {S}now contributions decline more strongly in simulations forced by the convection-permitting regional climate model ({WFR}3), leading to a shift from a snow-dominated to a predominantly rain-dominated hydrological regime. {T}hese results highlight the added value of high-resolution climate modelling in capturing fine-scale mountain processes, strengthening the confidence in climate-impact assessments, and also reveal the severe vulnerability of semi-arid mountainous water resources to future warming. {T}he more pessimistic scenarios obtained with the convection-permitting regional climate model call for a reassessment of currently available scenarios for future water resources in semi-arid mountainous regions obtained with coarse resolution climate models.},
  keywords = {bias correction ({CDF}-{T}) ; climate change impacts ; convection-permitting ; climate model ; mountain hydrology ; {R}eg{IPSL} ; snow processes ; {MAROC} ; {ZONE} {SEMIARIDE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{H}ydrological {P}rocesses},
  volume = {40},
  numero = {6},
  pages = {e70590 [18 p.]},
  ISSN = {0885-6087},
  year = {2026},
  DOI = {10.1002/hyp.70590},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010097367},
}