@article{fdi:010097079,
  title = {{H}ow a winner can also be a loser ? {A}t-sea vulnerability of a critically endangered endemic seabird to climate change},
  author = {{F}ernandez, {R}. and {G}uilhaumon, {F}ran{\c{c}}ois and {S}aunier, {M}. and {P}inet, {P}. and {H}umeau, {L}. and {L}e {C}orre, {M}. and {J}aeger, {A}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{A}im: {T}he last decades have been marked by a global decline of many migratory species, and predictions are even more alarming when climate change is considered. {W}e investigated the migration patterns and marine habitat selection processes of a critically endangered endemic seabird of the tropical western {I}ndian {O}cean, and projected future habitat suitability under climate-change scenarios. {L}ocation: {I}ndian {O}cean. {T}axon: {M}ascarene petrel ({P}seudobulweria aterrima). {M}ethods: {N}on-breeding distribution of the {M}ascarene petrel was estimated using {G}lobal {L}ocation {S}ensors ({GLS}) and key habitat selection predictors were identified using {S}pecies {D}istribution {M}odels ({SDM}). {T}he best-performing models were averaged to build an {E}nsemble model, which was projected under three {S}hared {S}ocioeconomic {P}athways ({SSP}) to assess future changes in non-breeding habitat suitability. {R}esults: {T}he {M}ascarene petrel exhibits a remarkably wide distribution throughout the tropical {I}ndian {O}cean during its non-breeding period. {W}e identified seven main core areas which highlights high inter-individual variability. {T}he species selected warm (similar to 28 degrees {C}) and deep water (-4000 m and -2000 m) with low gradient of bathymetry. {O}ur predictive models suggest that the suitable marine habitat of this species will increase in surface area by 7%-9% as a consequence of climate change. {M}ain {C}onclusions: {O}ur projections indicate that the {M}ascarene petrel may experience stable or slightly improved climatic suitability in its non-breeding marine habitat, suggesting a potential 'climate change winner' signal at sea. {H}owever, as many migratory species, it relies on multiple habitats and accumulates threat exposure throughout its entire life cycle. {T}he species therefore remains highly vulnerable due to strong terrestrial pressures and its restricted endemic range during breeding, supporting its characterization as a 'global change loser'. {M}ore broadly, our results highlight the importance of assessing threats across the entire annual cycle, particularly for migratory and wide-ranging species, to avoid misestimating overall vulnerability.},
  keywords = {climate change ; global location sensing ; migratory species ; species ; distribution modelling ; tracking ; vulnerability},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{J}ournal of {B}iogeography},
  volume = {53},
  numero = {4},
  pages = {e70234 [11 p.]},
  ISSN = {0305-0270},
  year = {2026},
  DOI = {10.1111/jbi.70234},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010097079},
}