@article{fdi:010097061,
  title = {{C}omments on "{M}editerranean {D}rying by a positive {N}orth {A}tlantic oscillation trend over the last 65 years is an extreme outlier in the {CMIP}6 multimodel ensemble"},
  author = {{V}icente-{S}errano, {S}. {M}. and {D}omínguez-{C}astro, {F}. and {B}eguería, {S}. and {H}alifa-{M}arin, {A}. and {L}ima, {M}. {M}. and {T}rigo, {R}. and {G}imeno, {L}. and {G}arcía-{H}errera, {R}. and {L}ionello, {P}. and {B}runetti, {M}. and {T}ramblay, {Y}ves and {M}augeri, {M}. and {G}onzalez-{H}idalgo, {J}. {C}. and {Z}orin-{M}olina, {C}. and {C}heval, {S}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}his comment addresses the interpretation of recent findings reported by {S}eager et al., who identify widespread winter drying across the {M}editerranean region during 1959-2023 and link this signal to a positive trend in the {N}orth {A}tlantic {O}scillation ({NAO}), characterized as an extreme outlier in the {CMIP}6 multimodel ensemble. {G}iven the strong interannual and multidecadal variability that typifies {M}editerranean hydroclimate, we argue that these conclusions require careful reassessment within a broader temporal and dynamical framework. {U}sing evidence from high-density homogenized station observations, instrumental {NAO} indices extending back to the early nineteenth century, {CMIP}6 historical and preindustrial control simulations, and multiple paleoclimate {NAO} reconstructions, we evaluate the robustness of both the reported precipitation and {NAO} trends. {W}e show that the winter drying identified for the 1959-2023 period is highly sensitive to the choice of the starting decade and largely reflects the influence of anomalously wet conditions during the 1960s. {W}hen longer records are considered, {M}editerranean winter precipitation is dominated by variability rather than by a persistent basinwide trend. {S}imilarly, the positive {NAO} trend over the last 65 years is shown to be consistent with internal atmospheric variability. {C}omparable multidecadal {NAO} trends and decades with strongly negative {NAO} values occur repeatedly in unforced model simulations and in proxy-based reconstructions over the last several centuries, indicating that the recent evolution of the {NAO} is not exceptional in a long-term context. {T}his comment emphasizes the importance of distinguishing short-term variability from long-term change when interpreting observational trends in highly variable regions. {W}e stress that recent observations should not be overinterpreted as evidence of an unprecedented or forced shift in {M}editerranean winter precipitation or {NAO} behavior.},
  keywords = {{E}urope ; {M}editerranean {S}ea ; {A}tmospheric circulation ; {C}limate variability ; {D}ecadal variability ; {N}orth {A}tlantic {O}scillation ; {EUROPE} ; {ZONE} {MEDITERRANEENNE} ; {ATLANTIQUE} {NORD}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{J}ournal of {C}limate},
  volume = {39},
  numero = {10},
  pages = {2829--2845},
  ISSN = {0894-8755},
  year = {2026},
  DOI = {10.1175/jcli-d-26-0055.1},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010097061},
}