@article{fdi:010097009,
  title = {{A} large transient multi-scenario multi-model ensemble of future streamflow and groundwater projections in {F}rance},
  author = {{S}auquet, {E}. and {E}vin, {G}. and {S}iauve, {S}. and {A}issat, {R}. and {A}rnaud, {P}. and {B}{\'e}rel, {M}. and {B}onneau, {J}. and {B}ranger, {F}. and {C}aballero, {Y}. and {C}oll{\'e}oni, {F}. and {D}ucharne, {A}. and {G}ailhard, {J}. and {H}abets, {F}. and {H}endrickx, {F}. and {H}{\'e}raut, {L}. and {H}ingray, {B}. and {H}uang, {P}. and {J}aouen, {T}. and {J}eantet, {A}. and {L}anini, {S}. and {L}e {L}ay, {M}. and {M}agand, {C}. and {M}imeau, {L}. and {M}onteil, {C}. and {M}unier, {S}. and {P}errin, {C}. and {R}obelin, {O}. and {R}ousset, {F}. and {S}oubeyroux, {J}. {M}. and {S}trohmenger, {L}. and {T}hirel, {G}. and {T}ocquer, {F}. and {T}ramblay, {Y}ves and {V}ergnes, {J}. {P}. and {V}idal, {J}. {P}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{A} large transient multi-scenario and multi-model ensemble of future streamflow and groundwater projections in {F}rance developed in a national project named {E}xplore2 was recently made available. {T}he main objective of {E}xplore2 is to provide rich and spatially-consistent information for the future evolution of hydrological (surface and groundwater) resources and extremes in {F}rance to support adaptation strategies. {T}he {E}xplore2 dataset was obtained using a nested multi-scenario multi-model approach to estimate future uncertainty and to assess local climate at the catchment scale: three greenhouse gas ({GHG}) emission scenarios, a set of 17 combinations of {G}lobal {C}limate {M}odels and {R}egional {C}limate {M}odels ({GCM}/{RCM}), and two bias correction methods provide the meteorological forcing for nine surface hydrology models and four groundwater hydrology models (one to simulate groundwater recharge and three to simulate groundwater level). {I}n this paper, we present the methodology underlying the dataset, the evaluation of the hydrological models against daily observations of streamflow and groundwater level, and the key messages on the impact of climate change on both mean river flows and groundwater recharge.{T}his large set of hydrological projections shows a high model agreement on the decrease in seasonal flows in the {S}outh of {F}rance under the {RCP}8.5 high-emission scenario, confirming its hotspot status. {T}he surface hydrological models agree on the decrease in summer flows across {F}rance under the {RCP}8.5 scenario, with the exception of northern part {F}rance. {T}his area may indeed benefit from more active winter recharge that may counterbalance decrease in summer precipitation and increase in evapotranspiration. {I}n addition to northern {F}rance, annual groundwater recharge is projected to increase slightly in the north-east while remaining unchanged elsewhere by the end of the century, according to the {RCP}8.5 scenario. {I}n the mountainous areas, winter flows will increase as a result of higher air temperature and the high degree of agreement between the models holds regardless of the {RCP} considered. {U}nsurprisingly, the higher the {GHG} emission scenario, the higher the median changes. {M}ost of these changes are organised in {F}rance along a north-south gradient, regardless of the {RCP} considered.},
  keywords = {{FRANCE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{H}ydrology and {E}arth {S}ystem {S}ciences},
  volume = {30},
  numero = {8},
  pages = {2277--2300},
  ISSN = {1027-5606},
  year = {2026},
  DOI = {10.5194/hess-30-2277-2026},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010097009},
}