@article{fdi:010096403,
  title = {{U}ncertainty sources in a large ensemble of hydrological projections : regional climate models and internal variability matter},
  author = {{E}vin, {G}. and {H}ingray, {B}. and {T}hirel, {G}. and {D}ucharne, {A}. and {S}trohmenger, {L}. and {C}orre, {L}. and {T}ramblay, {Y}ves and {V}idal, {J}. {P}. and {B}onneau, {J}. and {C}olleoni, {F}. and {G}ailhard, {J}. and {H}abets, {F}. and {H}endrickx, {F}. and {H}{\'e}raut, {L}. and {H}uang, {P}. and {L}e {L}ay, {M}. and {M}agand, {C}. and {M}arson, {P}. and {M}onteil, {C}. and {M}unier, {S}. and {R}everdy, {A}. and {S}oubeyroux, {J}. {M}. and {R}obin, {Y}. and {V}ergnes, {J}. {P}. and {V}rac, {M}. and {S}auquet, {E}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{M}ulti-scenario, multi-model ensembles of hydrological projections are widely used to describe possible futures of regional hydrology and inform adaptation strategies. {T}he {E}xplore2 dataset is such an ensemble of river flow projections in {M}etropolitan {F}rance. {I}t provides future simulations for 1735 catchments with modeling chains composed of different hydrological models forced by 36 regional climate projections based on bias-adjusted {EUROCORDEX} simulations. {T}his study assesses the uncertainties of this ensemble with {QUALYPSO}, a method specifically designed to deal with incomplete ensembles and to disentangle and quantify all uncertainty sources, including that due to internal variability.{F}ocusing on results obtained at the end of the century, this study shows a strong agreement between modeling chains towards decreases in low flows in a large southern part of {F}rance for a high-emission scenario, and very uncertain changes for the annual mean and high flows. {E}mission scenario uncertainty is the dominant source of uncertainty for low flows over the whole of {F}rance, and for mean annual flows in southeastern {F}rance. {T}he contribution of the global and regional climate models is important for mean and high flows, especially in rainfall-dominated areas. {R}egional climate models contribute considerable uncertainty to low flows, much more than global models. {T}he contribution of hydrological model uncertainty is large for low flows, moderate for mean annual flows, and small for high flows. {F}or all climate and hydrological indicators, internal variability is often large and cannot be overlooked. {I}t is often of the same order and sometimes larger than the uncertainty on the climate change response.},
  keywords = {},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{H}ydrology and {E}arth {S}ystem {S}ciences},
  volume = {30},
  numero = {4},
  pages = {1023--1051},
  ISSN = {1027-5606},
  year = {2026},
  DOI = {10.5194/hess-30-1023-2026},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010096403},
}