@article{fdi:010095879,
  title = {{E}volution of flood generating processes under climate change in {F}rance},
  author = {{T}ramblay, {Y}ves and {T}hirel, {G}. and {S}trohmenger, {L}. and {E}vin, {G}. and {C}orre, {L}. and {H}eraut, {L}. and {S}auquet, {E}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}he impact of climate change on floods varies across regions, and observed trends in flood characteristics are often explained by differential changes in the processes that cause flooding. {T}his study explores changes in flood magnitude and flood-generating processes under different climate change scenarios for a large number of basins in {F}rance. {I}t is based on an unprecedented exercise to model the impacts of climate change on hydrology, using a semi-distributed model ({GRSD}) applied to 3727 basins with 22 {E}uro-{CORDEX} bias-corrected climate projections using two greenhouse gas emission scenarios ({RCP}4.5 and {RCP}8.5). {A}nnual maxima of daily simulated streamflow were extracted for the period 1975-2100, resulting in a set of over 10 million flood events, and a trend analysis was carried out on both flood magnitudes and flood generating processes. {I}ncreasing trends in flood magnitudes are only found in the northern regions of {F}rance, although multi-model convergence rarely exceeds 60 %. {T}he highest increases are observed for the 20 year floods and under the {RCP}8.5 scenario. {A} classification of floods according to their generating process revealed that floods linked to soil saturation represent more than half of all floods in {F}rance. {T}he relative change in the importance of the different flood-generating processes is not spatially homogeneous and varies by region. {T}he proportion of floods linked to soil saturation excess is increasing in the temperate and continental climate zones in the {N}ortheast, while decreasing in the southern {M}editerranean regions. {I}n these {M}editerranean regions, the proportion of floods linked to infiltration excess related to extreme rainfall is increasing. {B}oth the frequency and magnitude of floods linked to snowmelt processes are decreasing in mountainous areas. {O}n the contrary, the most extreme floods associated with rainfall on dry soils tend to increase, in line with the increase of rainfall intensity. {O}verall, trends in antecedent soil moisture conditions are as important as trends in intense rainfall to explain flood hazard trends in the different climate projections. {T}his study shows how important it is to decipher the changes in the different flood generating processes in order to better understand their evolution in different hydroclimatic regions.},
  keywords = {{FRANCE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{H}ydrology and {E}arth {S}ystem {S}ciences},
  volume = {29},
  numero = {23},
  pages = {7023--7039},
  ISSN = {1027-5606},
  year = {2025},
  DOI = {10.5194/hess-29-7023-2025},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010095879},
}