@inproceedings{fdi:010095239,
  title = {{T}ipping points in hydrology : attribution of regime shifts using historical climate simulations and dynamical system modeling [r{\'e}sum{\'e}]},
  author = {{L}e {R}oux, {E}. and {W}endling, {V}. and {P}anthou, {G}. and {R}aynal, {P}aul-{A}lain and {B}a, {A}. and {B}ouzou-{M}oussa, {I}. and {C}ohard, {J}.{M}. and {D}emarty, {J}{\'e}rome and {G}angneron, {F}. and {G}rippa, {M}. and {H}ector, {B}asile and {H}iernaux, {P}. and {K}ergoat, {L}. and {L}awin, {E}. and {L}ebel, {T}hierry and {M}ora, {O}. and {M}ougin, {E}. and {P}ierre, {C}. and {R}ajot, {J}ean-{L}ouis and {P}eugeot, {C}hristophe and {T}he {T}ip{H}yc {P}roject},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}he {S}ahel (the semi-arid fringe south of the {S}ahara) experienced a severe drought in the 70s-90s. {D}uring this drought, an hydrological regime shift was observed for most watersheds in the {C}entral {S}ahel: runoff has significantly increased despite the rainfall deficit. {D}id the drought cause this regime shift ? {W}hat if the drought did not happen ? {T}o answer these questions, we introduce a simple dynamical model that represents feedbacks between soil, vegetation and runoff at the watershed scale and at the annual time step. {T}his model is forced with annual rainfall and evaluated using long-term observations of runoff from selected watersheds. {W}e find that the model forced with observed rainfall reproduces well the observed regime shift in runoff. {F}or the attribution of the regime shift to the drought, we rely on two sets of historical rainfall simulations from {CMIP}6 global climate models: fully-coupled simulations that do not reproduce the drought, and atmosphere-only simulations ({AMIP}) that represent the drought. {O}ur results show that a regime shift would have been unlikely without the drought. {T}his approach will be extended to identify areas that are likely to experience an hydrological regime shift in the future.},
  keywords = {{SAHEL} ; {ZONE} {SEMIARIDE}},
  numero = {},
  pages = {{EGU}23--3354 [2 ]},
  booktitle = {},
  year = {2023},
  DOI = {10.5194/egusphere-egu23-3354},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010095239},
}