@article{fdi:010095168,
  title = {{I}nterannual variations in tropical cyclone activity in the {C}entral {S}outh {P}acific : is {ENSO} the whole story ?},
  author = {{P}agli, {B}astien and {I}zumo, {T}akeshi and {C}ravatte, {S}ophie and {H}opuare, {M}. and {M}artinoni-{L}apierre, {S}. and {L}aurent, {V}. and {M}enk{\`e}s, {C}hristophe},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{E}ach austral summer, tropical cyclones ({TC}s) threaten {S}outh {P}acific {I}sland nations, causing potential socioeconomic impacts. {L}ocated on the eastern edge of the {S}outh {P}acific convergence zone, {F}rench {P}olynesia ({FP}) faces highly variable cyclone exposure, experiencing intense activity in some years and none in most, therefore heightening the vulnerability of local populations unaccustomed to such extremes. {W}hile {E}l {N}iño-{S}outhern {O}scillation ({ENSO}) strongly affects tropical cyclone activity in the {S}outh {P}acific, it is hard to quantify its impact in {FP} due to {ENSO} diversity, the rarity of {TC}s, and limited observational data. {W}e show how {ENSO} flavors influence cyclone emergence in {FP}, using a region-specific {ENSO} cluster classification, best track archive data, and cyclogenesis indices. {T}hese clusters refine traditional eastern {P}acific ({EP})/central {P}acific ({CP}) categories. {W}e strengthen the statistical robustness of our results by generating a large synthetic {TC} dataset with a physics-based {TC} downscaling model and investigating tropical storms from {H}igh-{R}esolution {M}odel {I}ntercomparison {P}roject ({H}igh{R}es{MIP}) simulations. {C}yclogenes is primarily occurs over northern {FP} during extreme {EP} {E}l {N}iño events, due to favorable large-scale vorticity and convective-prone conditions. {D}uring {CP} {E}l {N}iños, cyclones form farther west but can also reach {FP} due to favorable steering winds. {D}uring mixed {E}l {N}iños, cyclogenesis is highly sensitive to small shifts in large-scale conditions, causing strong variability in cyclone activity and making seasonal predictions difficult. {D}uring {L}a {N}iña, cyclonic activity decreases, with storms primarily confined to southern {FP} and disappearing during intense {L}a {N}iñas. {F}inally, we discuss the potential influence of volcanic eruptions and background interdecadal variations in cyclone activity in {FP}.},
  keywords = {{T}ropical cyclones ; {ENSO} ; {T}ropical variability ; {POLYNESIE} {FRANCAISE} ; {PACIFIQUE} {SUD}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{J}ournal of {C}limate},
  volume = {38},
  numero = {16},
  pages = {4097--4116},
  ISSN = {0894-8755},
  year = {2025},
  DOI = {10.1175/jcli-d-24-0582.1},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010095168},
}