@article{fdi:010094977,
  title = {{E}xploring uncertainty in dynamical future changes in {S}ahel precipitation : the extratropical influence},
  author = {{M}onerie, {P}. {A}. and {M}ohino, {E}. and {M}oine, {M}. {P}. and {B}iasutti, {M}. and {P}ohl, {B}. and {M}ignot, {J}uliette},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}he future changes in {S}ahel precipitation have significant societal implications. {Y}et, the projections in {S}ahel precipitation remain highly uncertain, partly due to strong differences across climate models in projected sea surface temperature ({SST}) and its effects on the atmospheric circulation. {T}his study investigates the effects of {N}orth {A}tlantic and {M}editerranean {SST} changes on future {S}ahel precipitation through sensitivity experiments conducted with three atmospheric models. {W}e confirm that the warming of the {N}orth {A}tlantic and the {M}editerranean {SST}s is one of the main reasons for the discrepancies between climate model projections of {S}ahel precipitation. {W}arming in the {N}orth {A}tlantic and {M}editerranean enhances the monsoon circulation and increases precipitation over the {S}ahel, primarily through dynamical effects driven by energy gradients. {A}t the same time, we identify non-linear responses to the {A}tlantic warming and substantial differences between the results of each model. {T}hus, reducing uncertainty in {S}ahel precipitation projections calls for improved understanding of two issues: first, {N}orthern {H}emisphere {SST} changes and their representation in climate models, and second, their effects on {S}ahel precipitation. {A}dditionally, we find that uncertainty in future {SST} changes contributes to uncertainty in high-impact weather events.},
  keywords = {{S}ahel precipitation change ; {U}ncertainty ; {A}tmosphere-only simulations ; {S}torylines ; {AFRIQUE} {DE} l'{OUEST} ; {ATLANTIQUE} ; {MEDITERRANEE} ; {ZONE} {SAHELIENNE} ; {ATLANTIQUE} {NORD}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{C}limate {D}ynamics},
  volume = {63},
  numero = {9},
  pages = {353 [21 p.]},
  ISSN = {0930-7575},
  year = {2025},
  DOI = {10.1007/s00382-025-07835-0},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010094977},
}