@article{fdi:010094932,
  title = {{U}ncertainty in projected changes of {I}ndian {S}ummer {M}onsoon {R}ainfall by {CMIP}6 models},
  author = {{S}ooraj, {K}. {P}. and {T}erray, {P}ascal and {A}swale, {A}. {M}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{A} robust and trustworthy rainfall projection over the {I}ndian landmass is vital for devising climate adaptation strategies. {H}owever, past studies show large inter-model spread in {I}ndian {S}ummer monsoon ({ISM}) rainfall projections thus calling for more detailed investigations on the underlying process. {I}n the present study, we investigate this aspect using {C}oupled {M}odel {I}ntercomparison {P}roject {P}hase 6 ({CMIP}6) model projections ({S}hared {S}ocioeconomic {P}athways, {SSP}5-8.5) and historical simulations. {T}he {M}ulti-{M}odel {E}nsemble mean ({MME}) results show intensification of {ISM} rainfall at the end of the 21st century with {ISM} rainfall increasing by 1.6 +/- 0.8 mm/ day under {SSP}5-8.5 scenario. {A} moisture budget analysis for the {MME} further infers that the thermodynamic effect ({TH}) due to global warming plays a dominant role in enhancing {ISM} rainfall in the projections, with its dynamic counterpart ({DY}) assuming an additional contribution. {I}t is also revealed that both {DY} and {TH} terms contribute to the inter-model uncertainty in {ISM} rainfall, but with {DY} dominating over the other this time. {T}he inter-model uncertainty in {DY} and {ISM} rainfall changes is linked to inter-model spread in interhemispheric thermal contrast which in-turn depends on the diversity in {E}quilibrium {C}limate {S}ensitivity ({ECS}) and {G}lobal {M}ean {T}emperature ({GMT}) among the models. {I}ntriguingly, when we remove the inter-model diversity in {ECS} through a {GMT} scaling, an {A}tlantic meridional surface temperature gradient, involving both land and ocean, emerges as a crucial driver in controlling the uncertainty in both {DY} and {ISM} rainfall changes, and drives largescale monsoon circulation changes over {A}frican and the {I}ndian subcontinents.},
  keywords = {{ISM} projection uncertainty ; {GMT} and {ECS} ; {DY} and {TH} ; {I}nterhemispheric thermal contrast ; {A}tlantic meridional temperature gradient ; {INDE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{A}tmospheric {R}esearch},
  volume = {328},
  numero = {},
  pages = {108424 [18 p.]},
  ISSN = {0169-8095},
  year = {2026},
  DOI = {10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108424},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010094932},
}